泛京津冀城市群数字经济-绿色发展-产业转型升级的耦合协调研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination of Digital Economy,Green Development and Industrial Transformation and Upgrading in Pan-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

选取2011—2017年泛京津冀城市群65个地级市为研究对象,构建数字经济、绿色发展和产业转型升级评价体系,利用耦合协调度模型研究三者之间在时空上的耦合协调程度,并利用稳健回归模型探究数字经济和绿色发展机制对产业转型升级的影响机制。结果表明:泛京津冀城市群在数字经济、绿色发展和产业转型升级之间的耦合协调程度呈现不断上升的趋势,完成了轻度失调—濒临失调—勉强协调的转变;数字经济和绿色发展两个子系统对产业转型升级的提升产生了显著的影响,整体来看,数字经济的影响要比绿色发展更显著;数字经济和绿色发展对产业高端化、数字化和绿色化的影响显著,但对合理化和国际化的影响不大,未充分发挥作用。

Digital economy,green development and industrial transformation and upgrading are important driving forces for high-quality development,and regional digital economy,green development and evaluation of industrial transformation and upgrading spatial distribution and development process are the basis for regional high-quality development.This paper selects 65 prefecture-level cities of pan-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2017 as the research object,constructs three evaluation systems of digital economy,green development and industrial transformation and upgrading efficiency,and uses the coupling coordination model to study the degree of spatiotemporal coupling coordination among the three,and uses the robust regression model to explore the impact mechanism of digital economy and green development mechanism on industrial transformation and upgrading efficiency.The results show that:the degree of coordination among the digital economy,green development and industrial transformation and upgrading efficiency of the Pan-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is on the rise,and the transition from slight imbalance to imminent imbalance to reluctant coordination has been completed;the digital economy and green development subsystems have a significant impact on the improvement of industrial transformation and upgrading efficiency,and the overall impact of the digital economy is more significant than the green development;and the digital economy and green development have a significant impact on industrial high-end,digital and green,but the impact on rationalization and internationalization is not significant and does not play a full role.