江西双季早稻播种育秧期低温连阴雨灾害分析

Analysis of Low Temperature and Continuous Rain during Sowing and Seedling Period of Double-cropping Early Rice in Jiangxi

基于江西省82个国家气象站点1961—2023年的逐日气象资料,研究了江西省双季早稻播种育秧期低温连阴雨气象灾害风险,结果表明:1961—2023年江西省早稻播种育秧期平均气温以0.379℃/10 a的速度升高,日照时数呈先减后增趋势;不同等级低温连阴雨灾害发生天数均呈先增后减趋势,高频区发生在1980s、1990s,2000年以后则发生较少;2001—2023年的整体发生频率比1961—2000年的低,但高频区向赣西北转移,赣东北和赣中有所减弱;综合风险等级显示,高风险区主要分布在抚州市、吉安市、萍乡市、宜春市、南昌市和九江市,中风险区主要包括赣南北部和赣东北地区,低风险区以赣南南部地区为主。

Based on daily meteorological data from 82 national meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 1961 to 2023,the risk of low temperature and continuous rain meteorological disasters during the sowing and seedling period of doublecropping early rice in Jiangxi was investigated.The results showed that from 1961 to 2023,the average temperature during sowing and seedling period of early rice in Jiangxi Province increased at a rate of 0.379℃/10 a,and the sunshine hours showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.The number of days of low-temperature continuous rain disasters at different levels showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,with high value areas occurring in the 1980s and 1990s,with fewer occurrences occurring after 2000.The overall probability during 2001~2023 was lower than that during 1961~2000,but the high value areas shifted to the northwest of Jiangxi,while the northeast and central parts of Jiangxi weakened.According to the comprehensive risk level,high-risk areas are mainly distributed in Fuzhou City,Ji’an City,Pingxiang City,Yichun City,Nanchang City and Jiujiang City.Medium risk areas mainly include the northeastern parts of Southen and Northeastern Jiangxi,while low risk areas are mainly located in the southern part of Southen Jiangxi.