矿山修复PPP项目风险的模糊决策评价研究

Research on fuzzy decision-making evaluation for the risk of mine restoration PPP project

大量废弃矿山不仅影响生态环境和引发次生灾害,而且还存在资源浪费和价值损耗,因此亟需修复治理。目前我国通常采用PPP模式进行矿山修复,因其缺乏有效的风险决策定量评价方法,从而影响投资主体的参与积极性。针对矿山修复PPP项目中存在的风险问题,采用多分类Logistic线性回归模型对所提出的风险假设进行定量分析,在此基础上采用模糊认知图的方法对风险控制力及其影响因素进行动态分析,详细研究了PPP模式下核心利益者的风险转换机制和收益风险管控机制。结果表明,营商环境是提高PPP项目风险控制力的可靠方法。

A large number of abandoned mines not only affect the ecological environment and cause secondary disasters,but also lead to resource waste and value loss,so there is an urgent need for rehabilitation and management.However,the frequently-used PPP model in China at present lacks of effective quantitative evaluation methods for risk decision-making,thus affecting the participation enthusiasm of the investment corpus of mine restoration project.In respone to the risks existing in mine restoration PPP projects,a multinomial logistic linear regression model was used to quantitatively analyze the proposed risk hypothesis,and a fuzzy cognitive map method was used to dynamically analyze the risk control ability and its influencing factors,the risk conversion mechanism and return-risk control mechanism of core stakeholders under the PPP model were studied in detail.The results showed that the business environment was a reliable method to improve the risk control ability of PPP projects.