人口老龄化、研发密度与出口比较优势——基于日本制造业面板数据的实证研究

Population Aging,R&D Density and Export Comparative Advantage:Empirical Analysis based on Japanese Manufacturing Panel Data

人口老龄化通过人口年龄结构变化对经济增长产生显著的影响,已成为全球关注的重要话题。日本是世界人口老龄化最严重的国家之一,日益严峻的老龄化成为制造业劳动力供给的重要制约问题。基于出口比较优势理论,利用2005—2016年日本制造业24个行业的面板数据,构建劳动力分布结构的计量模型,测度劳动人口年龄结构与出口贸易的动态关系,研究发现:(1)日益加重的人口老龄化影响了日本出口比较优势的发挥,对制造业的转型升级带来较大的压力;(2)不同年龄层劳动力的行业分布对出口比较优势产生影响的差异性较大;(3)研发密度的加大是抵消老龄化带来的劳动生产率下降并促进出口比较优势发挥的重要因素。

Population aging has a significant impact on economic growth through the change of population age structure,which has become an important topic of global concern.Japan is one of the countries with the most serious aging population in the world.The increasingly severe aging has become an important constraint on the supply of manufacturing labor.Based on the theory of export comparative advantage,using the panel data of 24 manufacturing industries in Japan from 2005 to 2016,this paper constructs a measurement model of labor distribution structure,and measures the dynamic relationship between the age structure of labor population and export trade.The results show that:(1)the increasing population aging has affected the exertion of Japan's export comparative advantage and brought great pressure on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry;(2)the industrial distribution of labor force of different age groups has great difference in the impact on export comparative advantage;(3)the increase of R&D density is to offset the decline of labor productivity caused by aging and promote the comparison of import and export The important factor of advantage exertion.