危机还是转机:关税壁垒、研发投入与创新质量转化

Crisis or Opportunity:Tariff Barriers,R&D Investment,and Innovation Quality Transformation

推动创新高质量发展是实现中国式现代化目标的重要环节。2018年以来美国对从中国进口的商品大规模加征关税。遭受关税壁垒冲击的中国企业在研发投入和创新高质量产出方面会受到何种影响,值得探究。基于2014-2021年A股制造业上市公司的面板数据,采用双重差分方法,实证检验美国对华加征关税对中国企业研发支出的影响及其效用机制。研究发现,美国对华关税壁垒提高了中国企业研发投入,表现为创新补偿效应和创新探索效应。进一步研究发现,企业短期创新产出下降而长期创新产出上升,并进行了由低质量创新向高质量创新的调整,说明关税壁垒促进了创新高质量转化。研究从微观视角丰富了中美贸易战对创新的影响,在贸易制裁框架下拓展了关税壁垒对研发的激励机制。同时,为在贸易保护背景下,企业和政府如何应对贸易制裁和有效发挥研发投入的质量导向提供了实证借鉴。

Promoting innovation and high-quality development is an important part of achieving the goal of Chinese-style modernization.In 2018 the United States has imposed massive tariffs on imports from China.It is worth exploring how Chinese enterprises suffering from the impact of tariff barriers will be affected in terms of R&D investment and innovation high-quality output.Based on the panel data of A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2014-2021,the difference-in-difference method is used to empirically test the impact of the tariff hike on Chinese firms'R&D expenditures and its potential mechanism.It is found that the U.S.tariff barriers to China increase the R&D investment of Chinese enterprises,which is manifested in the innovation compensation effect and the innovation exploration effect.Further research finds that short-term innovation output declines while long-term innovation output rises,and undergoes an adjustment from low-quality to high-quality innovation,suggesting that tariff barriers promote high-quality transformation of innovation.The study enriches the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on innovation from a micro perspective,and expands the incentives of tariff barriers on R&D under the framework of trade sanctions.Meanwhile,it provides empirical lessons on how firms and governments can cope with trade sanctions and effectively utilize the quality orientation of R&D investment in the context of trade protection.