长三角城市韧性格局演化趋势与空间溢出效应研究

Pattern Evolution and Spatial Spillover Effect of Urban Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta

运用综合赋权法和核密度分析方法研究2010—2020年长三角城市韧性的时空演化特征,借助Hurst指数预测城市韧性的演化趋势,采用空间杜宾模型揭示城市韧性的空间溢出效应。结果表明:①2010—2020年长三角城市韧性水平整体上升,年均增长4.23%,各子系统韧性增长显著;发达城市与资源型城市韧性分异趋势扩大。②长三角城市韧性空间极化现象趋于显著,H-H集聚区主要分布于苏南地区附近,L-L集聚区主要位于资源城市集聚的皖北地区;区域内92.68%的城市未来韧性发展水平趋势与现有趋势一致,1/4以上的城市未来韧性发展水平趋势良好。③开放程度的提升能有效提高本地的城市韧性水平,金融风险和产业结构的提升会削弱本地的城市韧性水平;生态防治、数字化水平、产业结构和开放程度的提升可有效促进周边地区城市韧性水平的提高。

This paper adopts the comprehensive weighting method and kernel density analysis method to study the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020.The Hurst index is used to predict the evolution trend of urban resilience,and the spatial Durbin model is used to reveal the spatial spillover effect of urban resilience.It is found as follows.①From 2010 to 2020,the resilience level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta has increased as a whole,with an average annual growth rate of 4.23%,and the resilience of each subsystem has increased significantly.The differentiation of urban resilience between developed cities and resource-based cities has expanded.②From 2010 to 2020,the spatial polarization of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta tends to be significant,showing that H-H agglomeration areas are mainly distributed near southern Jiangsu and L-L agglomeration areas are mainly located in northern Anhui where resource cities are concentrated.In the future,the urban resilience level of 92.68%of cities is consistent with the existing trend,and the urban resilience development level of more than 1/4 of cities has a good trend.③The improvement of openness can effectively improve the urban resilience level of local cities,and the improvement of financial risks and industrial structure will weaken the level of local urban resilience.The improvement of ecological prevention,digitalization level,industrial structure and openness can effectively promote the development of the urban resilience level of surrounding cities.