中国粮食虚拟耕地资源进口量区域差异、分布动态及收敛性研究

Regional Difference,Distribution Dynamics and Convergence of Imports of Grain Virtual Cultivated Land Resources in China

利用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计以及收敛性分析方法对2002—2022年中国31省域粮食虚拟耕地资源进口量的区域差异、分布动态和收敛性进行实证研究,结果显示:研究期内全国与三大区域粮食虚拟耕地资源进口量虽呈增加趋势,但空间差异和梯度效应明显;粮食虚拟耕地资源进口量的地区差异以区域间差异为主;全国及三大区域粮食虚拟耕地资源进口量的分布动态差异显著,其中全国及中西部既存在δ收敛又存在β收敛,东部地区只存在β收敛。今后要清晰认识虚拟耕地资源进口的区域非平衡性,因地制宜进行导向应对;发挥比较优势,倒逼农业产业结构升级;推动虚拟耕地资源进口区域协同发展,注重“有效市场”和“有为政府”的相互补充。

The Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation and convergence analysis were used to empirically study the regional differences,distribution dynamics and convergence of the imports of grain virtual cultivated land resources in 31 provinces of China from 2002 to 2022.The results show that although the imports of grain virtual cultivated land resources in China and the three major regions show an increasing trend,the spatial difference and gradient effect are obvious.The spatial differences for the imports of grain virtual cultivated land resources are mainly inter-regional differences.The dynamic distribution of the imports of grain virtual cultivated land resources in China and the three regions varies significantly,among which there is bothδconvergence andβconvergence in the whole country and the central and western regions,while there is onlyβconvergence in the eastern region.According to the research results,it is proposed to clearly realize the regional non-balance of the imports of virtual cultivated land resources and adapt to local conditions,to give full play to the comparative advantages and force the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure,to promote the coordinated development of the imports of virtual cultivated land resources,and"effective market"and"promising government"still need to complement each other.