安徽省县域就地城镇化时空演化与影响因素

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Counties′In-Situ Urbanization in Anhui

通过构建县域就地城镇化评价指标体系,系统分析2007—2020年安徽省县域就地城镇化时空演化特征,并利用空间杜宾模型剖析其影响因素。结果表明:①安徽省县域就地城镇化水平整体不断提升,但区域差异日益扩大,高水平区域向东部省际边缘区和中心城市周围演化,皖江城市带县域就地城镇化发展较快,且县域就地城镇化与产业经济发展具有强关联性;②安徽省县域就地城镇化水平空间自相关显著,热点区、冷点区空间分布较稳定,次热点区分布变化较大;③资金投入水平、人口就业结构、政府行政力量、基础设施水平、公共服务水平对本地县域就地城镇化发展具有重要影响,改善交通条件能同时促进本地与周围县域就地城镇化发展。未来可从激发县域经济活力、完善城乡相关配套政策、增强农民城镇定居能力等方面提升县域就地城镇化水平。

Taking Anhui as the research object,this paper systematically analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of in-situ urbanization of counties in Anhui from 2007 to 2020 by constructing the evaluation index system,and analyzes its influencing factors by using the spatial Durbin model.The results are as follows.①The overall level of in-situ urbanization of counties in Anhui is constantly improving,yet regional disparities are constantly expanding.High-level regions continue to expand to the eastern inter-provincial border areas and around central cities.The development of in-situ urbanization of counties along the Wanjiang River Urban Agglomeration is particularly prominent,and there is a strong correlation between in-situ urbanization and industrial economic development.②The spatial autocorrelation of the in-situ urbanization levels of counties in Anhui is significant,with relatively stable spatial distributions of hot spots and cold spots,the variation range of the sub-hotspot area is larger.③Capital investment level,population employment structure,government administrative power,infrastructure level,and public service have important impacts on the development of in-situ urbanization of local counties.Improving transportation conditions can simultaneously promote the development of in-situ urbanization in both local and surrounding counties.In the future,the level of in-situ urbanization for counties can be enhanced by stimulating county economic vitality,improving relevant urban and rural supporting policies,and enhancing farmers′ability to settle down in cities and towns.