西部地区城市群空间结构调整的经济增长效应:基于动态空间计量模型的检验

The Economic Growth Effect of the Adjustment of Urban Agglomeration Spatial Structure in Western China:A Test Based on Dynamic Spatial Econometric Model

城市群已成为中国西部地区经济发展的重要增长极与核心区,其合理有序的空间结构是经济增长的重要源泉。文章基于西部地区八大城市群2004—2020年面板数据,利用动态空间杜宾模型检验西部地区城市群空间结构调整对经济增长的作用效果与作用机制。研究发现:西部地区城市群的人口、产业和土地利用空间结构调整主要表现为空间集聚并显著促进了城市群经济增长;进一步的检验发现,这三类空间结构集聚对经济增长的促进作用在不断增强,且由短期促进演变为短期促进与长期促进并存。在影响机制方面,西部地区城市群人口空间集聚因加重环境污染而抑制了经济增长,但抑制作用明显弱于正向促进作用;产业空间集聚通过促进技术进步推动了经济增长;土地利用空间集聚通过加快产业结构升级促进了经济增长。最后,文章提出了提升城市群中心城市人口承载能力、提高城市群第二产业和第三产业空间集聚度、提高建设用地空间集聚度等政策建议。

Urban agglomerations have become important growth poles and core areas for economic development in western China,and a reasonable and orderly spatial structure is an important source of economic growth.The paper is based on panel data of eight urban agglomerations in western China from 2004 to 2020,and uses the dynamic spatial Dubin model to test the effect and mechanism of the spatial structure adjustment on economic growth in the western urban agglomerations.The research results show that the spatial structure adjustment of population,industry,and land use in urban agglomerations in western China mainly manifests as spatial agglomeration and significantly promotes economic growth;further examination reveals that the promoting effect of these three types of spatial structure agglomeration on economic growth is constantly increasing,and it has evolved from short-term promotion to coexistence of short-term and long-term promotion.In terms of impact mechanism,the population spatial agglomeration of urban agglomerations in western China has suppressed economic growth due to intensified environmental pollution,but the inhibitory effect is significantly weaker than the positive promoting effect;industrial spatial agglomeration supports economic growth by fostering technological progress;The spatial agglomeration of land use promotes economic growth by accelerating the upgrading of industrial structure.Finally,the paper proposes policy recommendations to enhance the population carrying capacity of central cities in urban agglomerations,the spatial agglomeration of the secondary and tertiary industries within urban agglomerations,and the spatial agglomeration of construction land.