国际消费中心城市建设政策对双循环新发展格局构建的影响研究

The Effect of the Construction of International Consumer Center Cities on the New Dual-circulation Development Pattern

在高质量发展阶段,我国必须加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,建设国际消费中心城市对加快形成双循环新发展格局具有重要战略意义。然而已有文献尚无法回答国际消费中心城市建设究竟多大程度以及如何助力城市融入双循环新发展格局。基于此,文章采用双重差分模型对我国41个城市进行实证分析,以检验国际消费中心城市建设政策的有效性。研究表明,国际消费中心城市建设政策能够通过畅通国内大循环和国际外循环,从而激活双循环联动发展效应,且这种正向促进效应通过平行趋势检验和安慰剂检验依然保持显著。文章认为应继续坚持推动国际消费中心城市建设政策走向深入,以政策动能鼓励城市外向型发展;应扣紧内需关键,以创新思维推动城市消费业态新发展;同时以国际消费中心重点建设城市引领周边发展,激活双循环。

In the new stage of high-quality development,China must accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other.Building an international consumption center city is of great strategic significance for forming a new development pattern of dual circulation.The existing literature is still unable to answer the extent of the construction of international consumer center cities and how to help cities integrate into the new development pattern of dual circulation.Based on this,this article uses the Difference-in-Differences Model to empirically analyze 41 cities in China,in order to test the effectiveness of the policy for constructing international consumption center cities.Research has shown that policies for the construction of international consumer center cities can activate the dual circulation linkage development effect by facilitating domestic and international circulation,and this positive promotion effect remains significant through parallel trend tests and placebo tests.This article believes that it is necessary to continue to promote the deepening of the construction of international consumer center cities and use policy momentum to encourage outward oriented development of cities,tighten the key to domestic demand and promote the new development of urban consumption formats with innovative thinking;At the same time,focus will be given on building cities as international consumption centers to lead the development of the surrounding areas and activate dual circulation.