碳中和愿景下森林碳储量核算及固碳潜力评价研究进展

Research Progress in Accounting for Forest Carbon Storage and Evaluating Carbon Se-questration Potential Evaluation under the Vision of Carbon Neutrality

当前气候变化已成为全球普遍存在问题,森林的固碳作用是应对气候变化问题的主要途径。准确核算森林碳储量及预测其固碳潜力,通过量化森林的固碳效益以探求能否在预期内实现碳中和目标。目前,基于森林的区域性及复杂性等特点,诸多学者对森林碳储量的核算及潜力预测已有了大量的研究,由于尺度转换的局限性、研究方法的差异性等突出问题,造成了碳储量核算准确度不高这一困局。在了解森林碳储量及固碳潜力对碳中和目标的作用后,文章以时间线为轴综述了到目前为止森林碳储量及固碳潜力的估测方法,分析了各类方法的适用性及取得的重要进展。从已有研究来看,森林碳储量及固碳潜力还存在估测方法繁杂、通用参数区域适用性较低、尺度转换上估算精度较差及误差分析不足等问题,未来在构建适用性强、多方法集成的碳储量测算体系的基础上,还应在数据获取、模型选择及参数应用等方面开展细致化研究,注重误差原因分析以提高结果的准确度。准确评估森林碳储量及未来潜力,能够展现研究区森林的碳汇能力,为进一步提升森林质量,持续发掘森林碳汇价值,助力碳中和目标的实现提供参考。

At present,the climate change has become a common problem in the world,and the forest carbon sequestration is the main way to deal with the climate change.Accurately calculating forest carbon stocks and predicting the carbon sequestration potential,and quantifying the carbon sequestration benefits of forests to explore whether carbon neutrality goals can be achieved within expecta-tions.At present,based on the regional and complex characteristics of forests,many scholars have conducted a large number of stud-ies on the forest carbon storage accounting and potential prediction.Due to the limitations of scale conversion and the differences in research methods,the accuracy of carbon storage accounting is not high.After understanding the role of forest carbon stocks and se-questration potentials in the carbon neutrality target,this paper summarized the estimation methods of forest carbon stocks and se-questration potential on a timeline,and analyzed the applicability of various methods and the important progress achieved.From the existing research,there were still some problems in the forest carbon storage and sequestration potential,such as complicated estima-tion methods,low applicability of general parameter regions,poor estimation accuracy in scale conversion and insufficient error anal-ysis.In the future,on the basis of constructing a highly applicable and multi-methods integrated carbon stock estimation system,de-tailed research should be carried out on the aspects of data acquisition,model selection and parameter application,and attention should be paid to the analysis of error causes to improve the accuracy of the results.Accurate assessment of forest carbon storage and future potential could show the intensity of forest carbon sink capacity in the study area,and provide a reference for further improving forest quality,continuously exploring the value of forest carbon sink,and helping to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.