考虑CBAM的中国外贸钢铁碳减排前景分析——基于隐含碳强度预测

Carbon Emission Reduction Prospects of China's Foreign Steel Trade Considering CBAM——Based on Embodied Carbon Intensity Forecasts

欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)正逐步实施,其高额碳关税无疑会加速中国出口钢铁行业碳减排进程,而与此同时,中国为实现“双碳”目标也出台了一系列减碳政策。为探究中国出口钢铁行业在复杂政策下的减排前景与关键因素,使用MRIO方法对隐含碳排放进行计算,构建了基于AO-ELM方法的隐含碳排放强度预测体系,模拟了不同政策情景下该行业的碳排放前景。研究发现,CBAM对该行业碳减排具有推动作用,但作用程度有限,提高中国国内政策的落实速度是更有效的途径;在同时考虑CBAM与国内政策如期落地的情景下,2034年该行业较基准情景可以降低8.35%的隐含碳排放。

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)is being gradually implemented,and its high carbon tariffs will undoubtedly affect China's export steel industry and accelerate the process of carbon emission reduction in the industry,while at the same time,China has also introduced a series of carbon reduction policies to realize the“Carbon peaked and carbon neutral”goal.In order to investigate the emission reduction prospects and key factors of China's export steel industry under complex policies,the Multi-Regional Input-Output Model was used to calculate the embodied carbon emissions,and a prediction system of embodied carbon emission intensity based on the Aquila algorithm to optimize the Extreme Learning Machine model was constructed to simulate the future carbon emission prospects of the industry under different policy scenarios.It is found that CBAM has a driving effect on carbon emission reduction in this industry,but the degree of effect is limited,and improving the implementa⁃tion speed of China's domestic policies is a more effective way.In the most likely scenario that considers both the effect of CBAM and the implementation of domestic policies as scheduled,the industry can reduce its embodied carbon emissions by 835%in 2034 compared with the baseline scenario.