基于国际比较的中国制造业中间品涉外循环演变研究

Research on the Evolution of China's Manufacturing Intermediate ProductsForeign-related Circulation Based on International Comparison

制造业中间品具有稳链和固链的强大作用,是构建双循环新发展格局的中流砥柱。本文基于投入产出模型,构建中间品投入和使用涉外循环分解框架,测度了中国制造业中间品供需两侧的涉外循环并进行国际比较。研究发现:中国制造业中间品涉外循环规模和增速领先于美、日、德,但占比小于美、日、德;技术越高,中间品涉外循环越多,中高技术制造业对国外中间品供给市场的依赖性更强;需求端中国制造业以最终品环节涉外为主,美、日、德以中间品环节涉外为主;中国总体及中高技术制造业中间品对涉外生产网络的依赖性低于美、日、德,对国外最终需求市场的依赖性高于美国而低于日、德。本文拓展了双循环分解模型,为探究中国制造业中间品涉外循环演变规律、拓展制造业中间品贸易提供了有益参考。

Manufacturing intermediate goods play a powerful role in stabilizing and fixing industry chain and stands as the mainstay in establishing the dual-circulation development pattern.Based on the input-output model,this paper constructs a frame⁃work for decomposing the dual circulation of intermediate products input and usage,measures the foreign-related circulation of China's manufacturing intermediate products,and makes an international comparison.The research finds that the scale and growth rate of foreign-related circulation on intermediate products in China's manufacturing industry are ahead of the United States,Japan,and Germany,but the proportion is smaller than that of the United States,Japan,and Germany.Judging from the degree of foreignrelated circulation,the higher the level of technology,the larger is the scale and proportion of foreign-related circulation involving intermediate products,with medium and high-tech manufacturing sectors showing a strong dependency on international markets for intermediate inputs.On the demand side,China's manufacturing industry is mainly involved in foreign transactions at the final goods stage,whereas the United States,Japan,and Germany primarily engage in foreign trade at the intermediate goods stage.Moreover,the dependency of China's overall and medium to high-tech manufacturing sectors on foreign-related production networks is lower than that of the US,Japan,and Germany,while reliance on foreign final demand markets is higher than that of the US but lower than Japan and Germany.This paper expands the dual circulation decomposition model,providing a useful reference for ex⁃ploring the evolution of China's manufacturing intermediate products foreign-related circulation,and expanding manufacturing inter⁃mediate products trade.