基于神经网络的风暴潮增水对海岸带城市排水的影响分析--以青岛市为例

The Effect of Storm Surge on Coastal Urban Drainage Based on Neural Network:A Case Study of Qingdao

本文以青岛市为研究区域,以0509台风风暴潮增水水位数据为基础,基于BP(Back propagation)神经网络,考虑地形地势特性中易涝因子,并结合水文分析提取入海排水口的空间分布,对青岛市沿海岸排水受风暴潮影响的区域进行预测,并进一步结合青岛市沿海岸,系统探讨气候变化背景下风暴潮增水对青岛市沿海岸排水的影响。结果表明:除风暴潮增水直接侵袭至陆地内侧区域,青岛大江口湾岸段、浮山湾岸段、汇泉湾岸段、青岛湾岸段、胶州湾东南侧岸段海泊河沿岸等区域在各类情景下排水受风暴潮增水影响较大。

Storm surge is a compound disaster for coastal zone cities.It is of theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of sea water level rise caused by storm surge on coastal zone urban drainage and the spatial distribution of influence intensity.The neural network can predict and classify the whole with partial samples by selecting reference factors,which has a good effect on solving the affected drainage range and determining the non-linear problems with complex causal relationship.Meanwhile,it can play a good role in the study of the lack of partial drainage network distribution data.Based on the 0509 Typhoon storm surge water level data and BP neural network,this paper considers the waterlogging prone factor in the topographic characteristics and extracts the spatial distribution of drainage outlets into the sea in combination with hydrological analysis,and predicts the area affected by storm surge along the coast of Qingdao.The effects of storm surge on coastal drainage in Qingdao under the background of climate change are systematically discussed.The results show that the drainage of Qingdao Dajiangkou Bay section,Fushan Bay section,Huiquan Bay section,Qingdao Bay section,southeast Jiaozhou Bay section and other coastal areas of Haibo River are greatly affected by storm surge under various scenarios,except storm surge directly invaded the inner land area.