新质生产力水平测度与区域时空差异

Measurement of New Quality Productive Forces and Regional Spatial-temporal Differences

作为高质量发展与中国式现代化的必然要求,新质生产力的测度对区域差异及未来发展方向具有重要意义。本文建立评价指标体系,利用2012—2020年面板数据测度新质生产力发展综合水平,并分析区域差距的时空演化,研究发现:新质生产力总体水平较低,培育与成熟阶段水平变化呈“稳定—上升”的波动趋势;东部与东北地区区域内变化趋势与全国变化趋势同步,中西部地区存在明显滞后效应;东部地区与其余三大区域间差距很大,空间集聚效应明显,东部地区实力遥遥领先。进一步研究发现,创新力与竞争力是新质生产力总体水平的关键障碍因素,滞后效应导致各区域关键障碍因素存在异质性,跨区域合作机制能够充分利用空间集聚效应。

As a necessary requirement for high-quality development and Chinese modernization,the measurement of new quality productive forces is of great significance to understand regional differences and future development directions.In this paper,we establish an index system and use panel data from 2012 to 2020 to measure the comprehensive level of new quality productive forces development.We analyze the evolution of regional disparities and find that the overall level of new quality productive forces is relatively low,with fluctuations in levels during the nurturing and maturing stages showing a“stable-rising”trend.The trends in the eastern and northeastern regions are synchronous with national trends,while there is a significant lag effect in the central and western regions.Disparities between the eastern region and other three major regions are stark,with obvious spatial agglomeration effects indicating that the eastern region leads by a large margin.Further research reveals that innovation capability and competitiveness are key obstacles to the overall level of new quality productive forces,with heterogeneous critical obstacle factors existing due to lag effects across different regions.Cross-regional cooperation mechanisms can fully utilize spatial agglomeration effects.