地缘政治竞争和全球价值链

Geopolitical Competition and Global Value Chains

过去几十年间,全球价值链的迅速发展进一步推动了世界经济的一体化。各经济体之间形成一种关系型的网络结构性相互依存。然而,近年来,日趋明显的大国地缘政治竞争对以全球价值链为基础的经济全球化构成巨大挑战。全球价值链由于其黏性和高转换成本对短期的冲击具有很强韧性,但长期的地缘政治竞争可能会改变企业的成本收益考量,从而改变价值链的地理布局。这种地理上的重新布局可能会更多地体现在行业分化上,然而,由于全球价值链的网络结构相互依存性,重新布局也有可能产生连锁反应,带来系统性变化。对全球价值链结构性相互依存如何影响国家之间的合作关系,以及企业如何应对地缘政治环境改变的进一步研究将有助于更好地理解地缘政治竞争与国际经济合作的相互作用。

Over the past few decades,the rapid development of global value chains(GVCs)has significantly promoted the integration of the world economy,creating complex structuralin iterdependence through relational networks.However,in recent years,increasing geopolitical competition between major powershas posed substantial challenges to this GVC-based globalization.While GVCs are resilient to short-term disruptions due to their stickiness and high switching costs,long-term geopolitical competition may alter the cost-benefit calculus of firms,leading to changes in the geographic distribution of GVCs.This geographic reconfiguration of GVCs will likely exhibit strong heterogeneity across industries.Yet,due to the structural interdependence of GVC networks,industry-level reconfigurations may also result in system-wide changes through a chain reaction effect.Further research on how GVC-based structural interdependence shapes cooperation between states and how firms respond to changing geopolitical environments will enhance our understanding of the relationship between geopolitics and economic cooperation.