2021年山东省济南市胃癌发病和死亡流行特征及2014-2021年趋势分析

Incidence and Mortality of Gastric Cancer in Jinan City of Shandong Province in 2021 and the Trends from 2014 to 2021

[目的]分析山东省济南市2021年胃癌的发病及死亡流行特征,以及2014-2021年变化趋势。[方法]通过山东省肿瘤登记报告系统收集2014-2021年济南市胃癌发病和死亡资料,分别按照城乡和性别分层计算粗发病(死亡)率、中标发病(死亡)率、世标发病(死亡)率及0~74岁累积率等;应用Joinpoint回归模型计算胃癌中标发病(死亡)率的年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)、平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),并分析变化趋势。[结果]2021年济南市胃癌粗发病率为42.79/10万,中标率为28.78/10万,世标率为22.28/10万,粗死亡率为28.08/10万,中标率为18.00/10万,世标率为13.47/10万,男性均高于女性,农村均高于城区。济南市居民胃癌粗发病率和粗死亡率均表现为随年龄增长呈上升的趋势。2014-2021年济南市胃癌年均粗发病率为45.36/10万,年均中标发病率为31.90/10万,中标发病率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-2.99%,P<0.05)。年均粗死亡率、年均中标死亡率分别为31.13/10万、21.34/10万,中标死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-3.59%,P<0.05)。[结论]2014-2021年济南市居民胃癌中标发病率和中标死亡率呈下降趋势,但2021年济南市胃癌流行形势不容乐观,应重点关注中老年男性和农村居民,尤其应重视40岁及以上人群胃癌筛查,以期降低胃癌的发病率及死亡率。

[Purpose]To analyze the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in Jinan City,Shandong Province in 2021,and the trend from 2014 to 2021.[Methods]The data of gastric cancer in Jinan from 2014 to 2021 were collected from Shandong tumor registration and reporting system.The crude incidence/mortality rate,age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by Chinese standard population and world standard population(ASIRC/ASMRC,ASIRW/ASMRW),cumulative incidence/mortality rates(0~74 years old)were calculated by areas and sex.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer from 2014 to 2021,and the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of ASIRC/ASMRC were calculated.[Results]In 2021,the crude incidence rate of gastric cancer in Jinan was 42.79/105,the ASIRC was 28.78/105,the ASIRW was 22.28/105;the crude mortality rate was 28.08/105,the ASMRC was 18.00/105,and the ASMRW was 13.47/105.All above indicators of males was significantly higher than those of females,and in rural areas was higher than those in urban areas.The crude incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer increased with age.From 2014 to 2021,the average crude incidence of gastric cancer in Jinan was 45.36/105,and the average ASIRC was 31.90/105;the ASIRC showed a decreasing trend(AAPC=-2.99%,P<0.05).The average crude mortality rate and the average ASMRC were 31.13/105 and 21.34/105 respectively,and the ASMRC showed a decreasing trend(AAPC=-3.59%,P<0.05).[Conclusion]The ASIRC and ASMRC of gastric cancer showed a downward trend from 2014 to 2021 in Jinan City,but the incidence and mortality rates are still at high levels.Emphasis should be given to middle-aged and elderly men and rural residents,especially to gastric cancer screening among people aged 40 and above.