京津冀城市群乡村振兴水平测度、区域差异分解及动态演进

Measurement of Rural Industry Revitalization,Decomposition of Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City Cluster

京津冀协同发展已经上升为国家战略。采用2000—2022年的面板数据,建立京津冀城市群的乡村振兴指标体系并进行测度,运用基尼系数对京津冀城市群乡村振兴水平进行差异分析,通过传统和空间马尔可夫链方法对京津冀城市群的乡村振兴水平动态演进趋势进行了研究。京津冀城市群的乡村产业发展取得了一定成效,中部大于南部大于北部;从城市群内部看,乡村振兴水平存在总体差异及区域内差异,区域差异主要来源于区域内差异,部分来自区域间差异,少部分来自超变密度贡献率;从时间序列看,差异均有一定程度降低,表明京津冀协同发展产生了区域间的协同作用。京津冀城市群乡村振兴在受到周围城市的影响的同时,也受到地理因素的影响。

The coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become a national strategy.Based on the panel data from 2000 to 2022,this paper establishes and measures the rural industry revitalization index system of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster,and analyzes the differences in the level of rural industry revitalization of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster by using Gini coefficient.By using traditional Markor chain and spatial Markor chain,this paper studies the dynamic evolution trend of rural industry revitalization level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster.The results show that the development of rural industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster has achieved certain results,and the central part is larger than the southern part than the northern part;The overall and intra-regional differences have decreased to some extent,and the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has produced regional synergies;The regional differences mainly come from intra-regional difference contribution rate,some from inter-regional difference contribution rate,and a small part from supervariable density contribution rate.The revitalization of rural industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster is influenced by the surrounding cities and the geographical background,and the degree of influence is different under different geographical backgrounds.