住院老年脑梗死患者衰弱危险因素分析及联合预测模型的构建

Analysis of risk factors for frailty in hospitalized elderly patients with cerebral infarction and construction of a joint prediction model

目的探讨住院老年脑梗死患者衰弱独立危险因素,构建联合预测模型。方法选取2022年3月至2022年11月某市三甲医院神经内科110名住院老年脑梗死患者,采用基本情况调查表、简易衰弱筛查量表、简版老年抑郁量表和焦虑自评量表进行测评,主要分析衰弱前期(82例)和衰弱(28例)状态患者。结果单因素分析与二元Logistic多因素回归综合分析显示,焦虑是住院老年脑梗死患者衰弱的独立影响因素(B=1.295,OR=3.650,P<0.05),年龄是住院老年脑梗死患者衰弱的独立影响因素(B=0.128,OR=1.137,P<0.05);联合预测模型表明联合预测因子ROC曲线下面积为0.825,敏感度=0.679,特异性=0.866。结论焦虑和年龄是住院老年脑梗死患者衰弱的独立危险因素,构建的联合预测模型准确率较高。

Objective To explore the independent risk factors for frailty in hospitalized elderly patients with cerebral infarction,and to construct a joint prediction model.Methods From March to November 2022,110 hospitalized elderly patients with cerebral infarction in the Department of Neurology of a tertiary hospital were selected.The Basic Information Questionnaire,the Simple Frailty Screening Scale,the Brief Geriatric Depression Inventory and the Anxiety Self-assessment Scale were used to analyze 82 patients with pre frailty and 28 patients with frailty status.Results Univariate analysis combined with binary logistic multifactor regression showed that anxiety was an independent risk factor on frailty in hospitalized elderly patients with cerebral infarction(B=1.295,OR=3.650,P<0.05),and age was an independent risk factor on frailty in hospitalized elderly patients with cerebral infarction(B=0.128,OR=1.137,P<0.05);and the combined predictive model showed that the area under the ROC curve for the joint predictor was 0.825 with sensitivity=0.679,specificity=0.866.Conclusion Anxiety and age are independent risk factors for frailty in hospitalized elderly patients with cerebral infarction and a joint prediction model was constructed with high accuracy.