基于STIRPAT模型的广西碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of influencing factors of carbon emission in Guangxi based on STIRPAT model

通过在时间尺度上分析了广西碳排放的变化趋势,并与我国不同省域碳排放水平进行比较,总结提炼出广西的碳排放特征;结合广西发展特征以2005—2020年广西经济社会环境发展数据为基础,利用拓展的STIRPAT模型从经济因素、人口因素、结构因素和技术因素4个方面对广西碳排放影响因素进行分析。结果表明:人口规模与人口结构对广西碳排放的促进作用最为显著,人口规模与人口结构每增加1%,碳排放量将增加0.401%和0.199%。人均GDP、第二产业产值、进出口总额的增长均会显著促进碳排放,根据环境库兹涅茨曲线,广西经济发展程度仍处于转折点之前。研究与试验投入、研究与试验人员是对碳排放贡献率最大的因素,贡献率分别为16.81%和14.51%,是减少广西地区碳排放的重要工作方向。

By analyzing the change trend of Guangxi's carbon emission on time scale,and comparing with the carbon emission level of different provinces in China,the carbon emission characteristics of Guangxi were summarized.Combined with the development characteristics of Guangxi and based on the development data of Guangxi's economic and social environment from 2005 to 2020,the STIRPAT model was used to analyze the influencing factors of Guangxi's carbon emissions from four aspects:economic factors,population factors,structural factors and technical factors.The results showed that population size and population structure had the most significant promoting effect on carbon emission in Guangxi.When population size and population structure increase by 1%,carbon emission would increase by 0.401%and 0.199%.The growth of per capita GDP,output value of the secondary industry and total import and export would promote carbon emissions.According to the environmental Kuznets curve,the economic development level of Guangxi was still before the turning point.Research and experiment input and research and experiment personnel were the biggest contributing factors to carbon emissions,contributing 16.81%and 14.51%respectively,which were important working directions to reduce carbon emissions in Guangxi.