青藏高原现代冰川冰缘区形变研究综述

Deformation of modern glacier periglacial area on Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

冰缘区系冻融作用强烈的冻土区,易发生地表隆沉、失稳滑移等形变,是冰川灾害的物源区。系统解析冰缘区活动层水-热-力效应引起形变的作用机制,对研究冰缘区地表形变类型和冰川灾害防治具有重要意义。当前青藏高原发育现代冰川冰缘区面积1.05×10^(6) km^(2),其中在过去几十年由于冰川退缩新增冰缘区面积约0.15×10^(5) km^(2)。冰缘区在气候、地形和现代冰川作用的综合影响下,产生以冻胀融沉为机理的垂直形变和以重力运移为主导的水平形变。未来研究应利用多源数据,结合冰缘区历史地表形变环境及致灾过程,借助人工智能实现现代冰川冰缘区地质灾害高效识别和预测预报,完善现代冰川冰缘区形变的监测-模拟-预测体系,为区域防灾减灾提供基础数据与理论支撑。

In this article,the first glacier inventory and the glacier inventory data set of the western China from 2017 to 2018 are used to obtain the retreat of the end of modern glaciers.Combined with the distribution data of frozen soil,the area ratio of modern glacier periglacial area and new periglacial area in each basin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are calculated.By reviewing the development process of deformation monitoring methods,the advantages and disadvantages of monitoring methods in each development stage are summarized,and the future construction of deformation monitoring system in modern glacier periglacial area is prospected.This article starts with the deformation types of the periglacial environment,analyzes and summarizes the de-formation mechanisms and influencing factors of each type,and focuses on the mutual transformation of vari-ous deformation types under the action of modern glaciers.It provides theoretical support for the construction of high-order deformation models and deformation simulation,and further understanding of the deformation of modern glacier periglacial areas.In the future,the deformation monitoring of modern glacier periglacial area will expand the spatial scale of monitoring,improve the accuracy of monitoring data and train the integrated model by carrying out the layout of measurement control network.Based on the dynamic inversion and analys-is of multi-surface deformation models such as‘glacier-hydrology-geomorphology’,a model library of perigla-cial deformation types in typical basins is constructed to improve the systematic understanding of the evolution of deformation disasters in periglacial areas.By coupling plate tectonics and other geodynamic processes,the deformation of modern glacier periglacial area is analyzed from multiple angles,and the space-space-ground integrated deformation monitoring system is constructed.The high-order deformation model and prediction scheme are constructed to realize the deformation early warning system of‘high cognition of deformation mechanism-high-order inversion of process-accurate prediction of type-accurate prediction of results-effective prevention and control of disasters’in modern glacier periglacial area.It provides a theoretical basis for the early identification and comprehensive prevention of geological disasters in the periglacial area of modern gla-ciers,and provides scientific data guidance for human and ecological environment protection,engineering con-struction and maintenance in the downstream of glaciers.