气候变化对吉林省沼泽湿地植物多样性影响模拟及分析

Simulation and analysis on marshes wetland plant diversity in Jilin Province under climate change

吉林省沼泽湿地生物多样性丰富,然而近年气候变化导致吉林省沼泽湿地面积减少,物种栖息地遭到破坏,因此气候变化对沼泽湿地植物多样性影响研究对沼泽湿地保护和恢复至关重要。本文基于吉林省沼泽湿地6601个样点的30种优势植物分布数据和19个环境因子数据,利用SSDMs模拟了现状年(1981—2010年)吉林省优势沼泽湿地植物物种丰富度格局,对各物种分布的主要驱动因子进行识别,并对21世纪末(2071—2100年)3种气候情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)优势沼泽湿地物种的分布进行预测。结果表明:影响吉林省优势沼泽湿地植物分布的主要环境因子是最湿季度的降水量、土壤pH和最温暖月份的最高温度。吉林省优势沼泽湿地植物分布不均匀,东部物种丰富度高于西部,丰富度最高的地区为敦化市;未来气候变化情景下,吉林省优势沼泽湿地植物分布范围缩小,物种丰富度降低;吉林省优势沼泽湿地植物大部分现存已经被保护,模拟发现的一些适宜分布区和未来气候风险区,在保护网络建设时应予以考虑保护。期望研究结果为吉林省沼泽湿地保护提供科学依据。

Jilin Province boasts an abundance of wetland resources,yet human misuse and climate change have led to a decrease in wetland areas and a decline in function.Investigating the impact of climate change on plant diversity in wetlands is crucial for the protection and restoration of these ecosystems.Currently,informa-tion and research on the future climate suitability of wetland plants are limited,and few studies have used stacked species distribution models(SSDMs)to investigate wetland plant diversity.Therefore,we used SSDMs to simulate the current distribution patterns of 30 dominant wetland plant species in Jilin Province,based on 6601 sample points and 19 environmental factors.We identified the main factors driving the distribution of each spe-cies,and predicted changes under three future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)in the fu-ture(2071—2100).Our results show that:the precipitation of the wettest quarter,soil pH,and max temperature of the warmest month are identified as crucial factors affecting the distribution of marsh wetland plant species.Species rich-ness in the eastern area is higher than that in the west,and it is unevenly distributed throughout Jilin Province,with the highest richness found in Dunhua City;under climate change,the distribution range and species richness of dominant marsh wetland plant species will decrease in Jilin Province;most of the dominant wetland plant species in Jilin Province have already protected,but the simulations show some suitable distribution areas and areas at high risk in the future that should be taken into account when building the conservation network.This study could provide a scientific basis for the conservation of wetlands in Jilin Province.