新疆乌什7.1级地震人口热力及其应急响应功能分析

Population heat of the Wushi M 7.1 earthquake in Xinjiang and its emergency response function

2024年1月23日2时9分,新疆阿克苏地区乌什县发生7.1级地震。为快速了解震区人口分布情况,判定此次地震极震区范围,分别采集震区内2时及2时30分手机位置数据。利用核密度空间评估方法得到震前及震后人口分布状态与变化情况,并对变化的原因进行分析。研究表明:基于手机位置信息评估得到的震后人口热力数据在城市中心会出现与以往震例不同的“反常”升高现象;人口热力数据对地震诱发的公路边坡地质灾害有很好的响应;部分通信基站退服导致个别村庄人口热力“斑点式”减少,该现象有助于判别基站退服点的地震破坏程度。由于样本数据分布不均且地震发生在凌晨2时9分,人口变化率在刻画地震影响场的能力方面稍显不足。人口热力数据可以在震后应急响应阶段快速获取灾区人口分布与动态变化情况,为灾情信息的获取及地震初期救援力量的科学分配提供有效的数据支持。

On January 23,2024,an M 7.1 earthquake struck Wushi County in the Aksu region of Xinjiang,China.To rapidly understand the population distribution in the affected area and identify the meizoseismal zone,this study collected mobile phone location data collected at 2:00 and 2:30 a.m.The kernel density spatial estimation method was employed to analyze the population distribution and its changes before and after the earthquake.The post-earthquake data revealed an unusual increase in population density in the city center,differing from patterns observed in previous earthquakes through mobile phone location information.The population heat data effectively indicated geological disasters such as landslides along roads.The study also noted a"spotted"decrease in population density in certain villages,attributed to the failure of some communication base stations.This decline in population heat data serves as an indicator of local earthquake damage.However,the uneven distribution of sample data and the earthquake's occurrence at 2:09 a.m.posed challenges.The population change rate proved somewhat insufficient for precisely delineating the earthquake's impact field.Mobile phone location data proved to be a valuable tool for quickly capturing population distribution and dynamic changes in the disaster area during the post-earthquake emergency response stage.This data facilitates the rapid acquisition of disaster information,enabling scientific allocation of initial rescue forces and providing valuable data support for earthquake relief efforts.