政策信号与流动人口长期居留意愿

Policy Signals and Long-Term Settlement Intentions of the Floating Population

城市因人而兴,吸引流动人口长期居留成为各城市未来经济社会发展的重要保障。本文从城市政府工作报告中提取丰富的信号代表政策导向,分析其对流动人口长期居留意愿的作用。研究表明,政策信号可提高流动人口长期居留意愿并吸引人口流入。机制分析结果显示,政策信号能够促进财政支出增长和政策落地,通过提高流动人口的社会融合度、满意度及未来信心增强其长期居留意愿。城市政策信号相较其他城市的横向信息增量越多、与自身前期纵向信息增量越少,越有利于人口流入。本研究表明政府执行有效的民生政策应在工作报告中予以充分体现,准确向公众传达相关信号以增进流动人口的长期居留意愿。

Cities thrive on their inhabitants,and attracting a floating population to settle in the long term has become a vital guarantee of the future economic and social development of cities.This paper extracts rich signals that represent the policy orientations of the urban government work reports and analyses their effects on the long-term settlement intentions of the floating population.The results demonstrate that policy signals can increase the long-term willingness of the floating population to settle and attract population inflow.The mechanism analysis results reveal that policy signals can eventually promote fiscal spending and policy implementation,and also increase long-term settlement expectations by improving the social integration,satisfaction and future confidence of the floating population.The more incremental horizontal information is provided by a city’s policy signals relative to other cities,and the less incremental vertical information is generated compared to the initial stage itself,the more conducive the population inflow becomes.The government’s implementation of effective livelihood policies should be fully reflected in work reports,accurately conveying relevant signals to the public in order to improve the long-term settlement intentions of the floating population.