美元主导国际货币体系下金融风险的演化与治理——资产估值的视角

Evolution and Governance of Financial Risks Under International Monetary System Dominated by US Dollar:From Perspective of Asset Valuation

在以美元为主导的国际货币体系下,金融危机的实质是美元周期与本国经济基本面“错位”导致的资产估值危机。换言之,美国利用美元的国际货币地位和美债作为全球资产定价之锚的地位,构建起“美元—美债”循环体系,实现利益本国化和风险全球化,进而影响其他国家的资产估值。资产估值一旦形成,在一定条件下便具有自我实现机制,由此可能引发金融危机。当前中国经济发展面临较大压力,虽然相关指标仍在安全范围内,但外部风险对金融体系的影响不容忽视,如果应对不当,有可能陷入“隐性金融危机”。防范与化解金融危机应当构建以稳定资产估值为核心的政策体系,通过财政货币政策协同发力,在稳定资产估值过程中发挥基础作用,并以大国财政思维改善全球风险分配格局。

Under the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar,the essence of a financial crisis is an asset valuation crisis caused by the mismatch between the US dollar cycle and the fundamentals of the domestic economy.In other words,the US utilizes the US dollar's position as the international currency and the US bonds'position as the anchor of global asset pricing to construct a"US dollar-US bond"circular system,achieving localization of interests and globalization of risks,and influencing asset valuations in other countries.Once asset valuation is established,it may trigger a self-fulfilling mechanism under certain conditions,which may lead to the outbreak of financial crises.Currently,China's economy is facing great pressure,although relevant indicators are still within a safe range.Nevertheless,the impact of external risks on the financial system cannot be ignored.Mishandling may lead to an"implicit financial crisis."To prevent and resolve financial crisis,a policy system with stable asset valuations as the core should be established,and fiscal-monetary coordination should play a cornerstone role in stabilizing asset valuations.The global risk allocation pattern should be improved with the fiscal thinking of major countries.