制造业关联网络承压能力研究:基于投入产出表的特征分析与压力测试

The Pressure-Bearing Capacity of Manufacturing Association Networks:A Characteristic Analysis and Stress Testing Based on Input-Output Tables

数字经济快速发展对制造业关联网络带来诸多不确定性影响,制造业关联网络承压能力研究尤为重要。为应对这一形势,基于2017年、2018年和2020年投入产出表,借助产业集群三角形化方法识别并构建制造业关联网络,结合最大权树法分析制造业关联网络特征,并测试不同程度冲击对制造业关联网络产生的压力。研究发现:①化学产品是制造业关联网络的核心产业,但其核心地位呈下降趋势;②总体而言,制造业对整个关联网络的后向关联效应较强,非制造业的前向关联效应较强;③随着压力源头产业直接关联产业数量的增加,制造业关联网络所承受的压力呈下降趋势;随着压力源头产业与其它产业关联程度的下降,制造业关联网络承受的压力呈下降趋势。研究结论可为制造企业应对承压状态、促进经济高质量发展提供理论依据与实践参考。

The manufacturing industry is the fundamental industry of the national economy.There are complex interrelationships between various industries,and a manufacturing industry network is formed through the interrelationships between them.Thus,the impact of a single industry will cause pressure on the entire network through the interrelationships between industries.With the rapid development of digitalization,the digital economy has brought many uncertain factors to the development of the manufacturing industry.In this context,exploring the pressure-bearing capacity of manufacturing association networks has become an important issue of concern for people.It is necessary to first understand the characteristics of the manufacturing association network in order to gain a deeper understanding of the development momentum of the manufacturing industry in the current economic context,which introduces two questions:How should researchers conduct stress testing on manufacturing association networks?Following the network theory of industrial association,this study centers around the above problems by using centrality analysis,forward association analysis,backward association analysis,maximum weight tree algorithm analysis and pressure model construction.On the basis of reviewing the industrial correlation theory,this study explores the characteristics and conducts stress testing of manufacturing industry correlation networks within the analytical framework of industrial correlation theory.Firstly,the research hypotheses are derived based on relevant theoretical foundations.Then,according to the industrial cluster triangulation method and direct consumption coefficient,the manufacturing association network is constructed,and the characteristics of the current manufacturing-related network are analyzed through centrality analysis,forward-related analysis,backward-related analysis,and the maximum weight tree algorithm.Finally,a model for stress testing is constructed,and the stress of the manufacturing association network is analyzed.The research results indicate that,firstly,chemical products are the most core industry in the manufacturing industry network,but their core position has a downward trend.The reasons for this phenomenon might be that(1)the production process of chemical products has the characteristics of high energy consumption and high pollution;(2)green environmental protection requirements can easily lead to a one-size-fits-all problem;(3)chemical products are difficult to keep up with the current new forms of manufacturing development;(4)the digitization process of chemical products is slow.It can be seen that the decline in the core position of chemical products as the core industry of the industrial economy is traceable.Meanwhile,with the development of industrial integration,the core position of some non-manufacturing industries in the entire industry is on the rise.Secondly,compared to non-manufacturing industries,the forward correlation degree of manufacturing in the entire correlation network is relatively weak,but the backward correlation degree is relatively strong.From the changes in the direct partition coefficient and the complete partition coefficient,it is clear that the proportion of industries with strong forward linkages in the manufacturing industry is relatively low,and the proportion of industries with weak forward linkages is high and has a downward trend.From the changes in direct consumption coefficient and complete consumption coefficient,it can be seen that the proportion of industries with strong backward correlation in the manufacturing industry is relatively high,while the proportion of industries with weak backward correlation is relatively low and showing a downward trend.Thirdly,in general,the manufacturing association network has a strong pressure-bearing capacity as a whole,and two hypotheses are valid,i.e.,as the number of directly related industries increases,the pressure generated by the industry impact on the entire manufacturing association network tends to decrease;when the degree of correlation between an industry and other industries decreases,the pressure generated by the impact of that industry tends to decrease.This study provides reference value for deepening the longitudinal and situational research.In future research,the research methods of inter-industry association networks can be extended to micro enterprises;furthermore,it is feasible to conduct precise research on a single industry,providing a more accurate theoretical basis for the development of specific industries.