报春花科报春花属灯台报春组的潜在分布格局模拟

Simulation of the Potential Range of Sect.Proliferae of the Genus Primula in Primulaceae

灯台报春组(Sect.Proliferae)为报春花科报春花属植物,具有极高的观赏价值和药用价值.基于灯台报春组19个种和1个亚种的204个分布点信息以及12个高分辨率环境变量数据,采用最大熵模型预测了灯台报春组物种在我国的潜在适宜分布区,分析了其从历史至未来不同气候环境情景下的地理空间分布格局变化,确定了主要气候因子.研究结果表明:温度年较差、年降水量、最低月均辐射量、等温性和海拔是影响灯台报春组潜在分布的关键环境因子,累计贡献率接近85%.当前,灯台报春组在我国的主要适宜分布区是西南部,总面积约为9.535×10^(5) km^(2),高度适生区集中在横断山脉.总体来看,从冰期至未来(2050年和2070年),灯台报春组潜在适宜生境的分布中心呈现向高纬度区域转移的趋势.在末次间冰期,灯台报春组种群经历了大范围收缩,退缩至云南和四川南部;进入末次盛冰期以后,种群重新向北扩张.在未来不同二氧化碳浓度路径下,灯台报春组物种的潜在适宜分布区的面积继续向北扩张,但随着未来土地利用的变化和人类的干扰,部分适宜生境可能会丧失.

The sect.Proliferae(Primula)is an important flower germplasm resource with high ornamental value and medicinal value.Based on the information of 204 distribution points of 19 species and 1 subspecies of sect.Proliferae and 12 high-resolution environmental variables,this study used the maximum entropy(Maxent)model to predict the potential suitable distribution area of sect.Proliferae species in China,analyzed the changes of geographical spatial distribution pattern under different climatic and environmental scenarios from history to future,and determined the main environmental influencing factors.The results show that the temperature annual range,annual precipitation,minimum monthly average radiation,isothermality,and altitude are the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of the sect.Proliferae,and the cumulative contribution rate is up to 85%.Currently,the southwest of China is the main suitable distribution area of the sect.Proliferae,with a total area of about 9.535×10^(5) km^(2),and the highly suitable areas are concentrated in the Hengduan Mountains.In general,from the glacial period to the future(2050 and 2070),the distribution center of potential suitable habitats in the sect.Proliferae shows a trend of shifting to high latitudes.During the last inter-glacial period,the population of sect.Proliferae experienced a large-scale contraction,retreating to Yunnan and southern Sichuan.After entering the last glacial maximum,the population expanded northward again.Under different carbon dioxide concentration paths in the future,the area of potential suitable distribution area of sect.Proliferae species continues to expand northward,but with future land use changes and human interference,some suitable habitats may be lost.