基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故隐患关联与溯源分析

Correlation and traceability analysis of hazardous chemical explosion accidents based on Bayesian network

为提高隐患排查工作实效,基于贝叶斯网络(BN),提出一种危化品爆炸事故隐患推理模型。首先,依据燃烧爆炸理论和专家经验,确定影响危化品爆炸的主要隐患类别,构建爆炸、泄漏超限、点火源的BN模型,并采用三角模糊数厘定隐患的先验和条件概率;然后,利用贝叶斯正向推理计算危化品爆炸发生概率,结合反向推理,查明最可能导致爆炸事故发生的隐患并追溯形成隐患的风险因素;最后,应用贝叶斯敏感性分析方法,确定影响危化品爆炸的关键隐患及事故隐患间的关联,并通过储油罐爆炸案例进行验证。研究结果表明:以因果推理方式计算出的储油罐爆炸风险概率约为4.7%;设备超压和电火花两者后验概率最大,是最可能导致储油罐爆炸的隐患,追溯其原因是未定期检查储罐或未使用防爆设备;电火花和阀门或法兰损坏是储油罐爆炸的关键隐患,事故隐患关联以致患链“阀门或法兰损坏→油品异常涌出→泄漏超限→遇火源(电火花)→发生爆炸”的形式呈现。

In order to improve the effectiveness of hidden danger investigation,a reasoning model for hidden danger of explosive accidents of hazardous chemicals was proposed based on BN.First,according to the theory of combustion and explosion and expert experience,the main types of hidden dangers affecting the explosion of hazardous chemicals were determined,and BN model of explosion,leakage and ignition source was constructed.The prior and conditional probabilities of hidden dangers were determined by triangular fuzzy numbers.Then,Bayesian forward reasoning was used to calculate the probability of explosions of hazardous chemicals.Combined with reverse reasoning,the hidden dangers that were most likely to lead to explosion accidents were identified,and the formation of hidden risk factors was traced back.Finally,Bayes sensitivity analysis method was used to determine the key hazards affecting the explosion of hazardous chemicals and the correlation between the accident hazards,and it was verified by an explosion case of oil storage tank.The results show that the explosion probability of the storage tank calculated by causal reasoning is about 4.7%.Equipment overpressure and electric spark have the highest posterior probability,which is the most likely to lead to the explosion of the storage tank.The reason can be traced back to the failure to inspect the storage tank regularly or the failure to use explosion-proof equipment.Electrical spark and valve or flange damage are the key hidden dangers of oil storage tank explosion,and the accident hidden danger is related to the chain of"valve or flange damage→abnormal oil gusher→leakage exceeding limit→fire source(electrical spark)→explosion".