基于GM(1,1)的中医医院与综合医院医疗收入结构变动及趋势预测研究

Research on the structural variation and trend prediction of medical income of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals and general hospitals based on GM(1,1)

[目的]分析我国中医医院和综合医院医疗收入结构变动情况,预测两类医院医疗收入构成变化趋势,为合理调控医疗费用增长提供参考依据。[方法]根据2015-2021年我国中医医院、综合医院各项医疗收入数据,运用结构变动方法分析两类医院医疗收入中主要构成的变动情况,并通过GM(1,1)模型预测两类医院2023-2025年各项医疗收入占比。[结果]2015-2021年综合医院和中医医院医疗收入结构变动度为25.53%和21.85%,两类医院整体医疗收入结构变动较明显,综合医院检查化验收入的结构变动贡献率最大(28.83%),而中医医院医疗服务收入的结构变动贡献率最大(32.66%)。未来两类医院药品收入占比将持续降低,检查化验收入、医疗服务收入占比平稳上升成为未来两类医院医疗收入的关键构成要素。[结论]两类医院医疗收入结构得到一定改善,检查化验收入、医疗服务收入分别为综合医院、中医医院医疗收入结构变动的主要因素,未来两类医院医疗收入结构仍有待进一步优化。

Objective To analyze the structural variation of medical income of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)hospitals and general hospitals in China,to predict the variation trend of the composition of medical income of two types of hospitals,and to provide the reference for rational regulation of the growth of medical expenses.Methods According to the data of medical incomes of TCM hospitals and general hospitals from 2015 to 2021,the structural variation method was used to analyze the changes of the main components of medical income in the two types of hospitals,and the proportion of medical income in the two types of hospitals from 2023 to 2025 was predicted by using the GM(11)prediction model.Results The degree of structure variation of medical income of general hospitals and TCM hospitals from 2015 to 2021 was 25.53%and 21.85%,and the structural variation of overall medical income of the two types of hospitals was obvious.The contribution rate of structural variation of the check-up and laboratory income of general hospitals was the highest(28.83%),while the contribution rate of structural variation of the medical service income of TCM hospitals was the highest(32.66%).In the future,the proportion of drug income of the two types of hospitals would continue to decrease.The steady increase in the proportion of check-up and laboratory income and medical service income would become the key components of the medical income of the two types of hospitals.Conclusions The structure of medical income of the two types of hospitals has been improved to some extent.The check-up and laboratory income and medical service income are the main factors of the structural variation of medical income in general hospitals and traditional Chinese medicine hospitals respectively.In the future,the medical income structure of the two types of hospitals still needs further optimization.