美国货币政策不确定性对中国CPI影响效应研究

Research on the Impact of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty on China's CPI

为应对2018年开始的美国国内经济下行和高通胀,美联储实施了由宽松到紧缩的货币政策。由于美元在国际清算系统(SWIFT)中具有主导地位并在SDR货币篮子中具有绝对份额,因此,美国货币政策“松与紧”调整的不确定性或将给世界及中国经济带来风险。本文依据国际货币、价格传导等理论,选取2019年1月—2023年6月美国利率和中国CPI等时间序列数据,运用TVP-VAR模型研究了美国货币政策调整对我国CPI的外部冲击效应。研究表明:美国货币政策由松到紧调整的不确定性对我国CPI具有外部性影响,并存在时变特征;在“松与紧”的不同时期,美国货币政策通过不同途径对中国CPI的影响存在异质性;同时,美联储货币政策调整对我国不同商品价格的冲击也呈现出异质性。因此,我国需继续坚持稳健的货币政策,发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功效;用好国际国内资金、市场等金融要素,持续提升金融开放水平,稳健推进金融强国建设;以国内大循环为主,提高经济内驱力和产业韧性,以深厚“内功”,夯实我国CPI在合理区间波动的基础;加大能源、消费品,生活用品价格等对CPI影响较大行业监测和调控等措施;从而降低美国货币政策调整的不确定性对我国CPI造成的异常波动的外部风险,助力我国金融强国目标建设。

In response to the domestic economic downturn and high inflation that began in 2018 in the United States,the Federal Reserve implemented a monetary policy from loose to tight.Since the US dollar has a dominant position in the international clearing system(SWIFT)and has an absolute share in the SDR currency basket,the uncertainty of the US monetary policy"loose and tight"adjustments may bring risks to the world and the Chinese economy.Based on international currency,price transmission and other theories,this paper selects the time series data of US interest rates and China's CPI from January 2019 to June 2023,and uses the TVP-VAR model to study the external shock effect of US monetary policy adjustment on China's CPI.The study shows that the uncertainty of the US monetary policy adjustment from loose to tight has an external impact on China's CPI and has a time-varying feature;at different times of"loose and tight",the US monetary policy has different impacts on China's CPI through different channels;at the same time,the Fed's monetary policy adjustment has a heterogeneous impact on the prices of different commodities in China.Therefore,China needs to continue to adhere to a prudent monetary policy,fully play the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of quantity and structure;use good international and domestic financial resources,markets and other financial elements,and continuously improve the level of financial opening;and steadily advance the construction of a financial powerhouse.Prioritize domestic circulation,enhance economic drive and resilience of industries,and lay a solid foundation for CPI in China to fluctuate within a reasonable range with profound"internal strength".Strengthen monitoring and regulation of energy,consumer goods,and daily necessities,which have a significant impact on CPI,to reduce the external risks of abnormal fluctuations in CPI caused by the uncertainty of US monetary policy adjustments and support the construction of a financial powerhouse in China.