面向重大突发事件的智慧政府情报决策效果组态路径研究

Research on the Configuration Path of the Effectiveness of Smart Government Intelligence Decision-making for Major Emergencies

从重大突发事件应对的视角出发,探索智慧政府情报决策效果的内涵与特点,并分析智慧政府情报决策效果的影响因素及其条件变量组合路径,有利于决策效果的优化与重大突发事件的妥善应对。以安全系统理论与物理-事理-人理(wuli-shili-renli,WSR)方法为指导,通过大量文献调研与分析界定政府情报决策效果的内涵与特点,同时梳理影响政府情报决策效果的条件变量,采用问卷调查收集相关数据,再利用模糊集定性比较法详尽分析其影响因素与条件变量组合路径。通过研究决策信息焦虑、情报传递障碍、突发事件网络舆情、突发事件应急响应、信息基础设施建设、法律法规与制度建设等不同变量组态对智慧政府情报决策效果的影响,最终得到5条组合路径,即情报传递障碍缺失型路径、事理因素主导的信息焦虑因素与法规制度因素融合型路径、信息焦虑缺失型路径、事理因素主导的情报传递障碍因素与法规制度因素融合型路径以及法规制度特化型路径。这些条件变量组合路径可以为智慧政府情报决策提升与突发事件应对提供参考。

From the perspective of responding to major emergencies,we explored the connotations and characteristics of the effectiveness of smart government intelligence decision-making and analyzed the influencing factors and conditional variable combination paths of the effectiveness of smart government intelligence decision-making,which is conducive to the optimization of smart governments and proper responses to major emergencies.Guided by the security system theory and WSR(wuli-shili-renli)methodology,first,through an extensive review and analysis of the relevant literature,we de‐fined the connotation and characteristics of the government intelligence decision-making effect and then sorted out the con‐ditional variables influencing the effectiveness of government intelligence decision-making.We collected relevant data through questionnaires and then used the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis law method to comprehensively ana‐lyze the combination path of influencing factors and conditional variables.By studying the impact of different variable fac‐tors(e.g.,decision-making information anxiety,information transmission barriers,emergency network public opinion,emergency response,information infrastructure construction,laws,regulations,and system construction)on the intelli‐gence decision-making effect of a smart government,we finally obtained five combination paths:the information transmis‐sion barrier missing path;information anxiety factor dominated by the reason factor,law,and system factor fusion path;the path of lacking information anxiety;the path of integrating information transmission barriers dominated by rational fac‐tors with regulatory and institutional factors;and the path of specialized regulatory and institutional factors.These paths can provide a reference for improving intelligent decision-making and emergency responses in smart governments.