气候变化适应性行为对茶农收入的影响——基于福建312份农户调查数据

Study on the Impact of Climate Change Adaptive Behaviors on Tea Farmers Income——Based on Survey of 312 Rural Households in Fujian Province

为探究农户适应性行为及其对农业产出的影响效应,基于福建省6个县市19个乡镇312户茶农的微观调研数据,采取倾向得分匹配模型,实证分析气候变化适应性行为对茶农收入的影响.研究表明:①面对气候变化及其影响,58.65%的茶农会采取应对措施,41.35%的茶农未采取任何措施.②控制适应性行为内生性后,相较于未采取组茶农而言,采取组茶农茶叶收入水平平均提高了29.01%.基于收入依赖与经营规模的异质性分析,发现相较于全样本而言,收入完全依赖组和经营大规模组茶农具有更高的平均效应值(ATT)值,且不同组间适应性行为对茶农茶叶收入的作用效果从大到小依次为收入完全依赖、大规模、全样本.

In order to explore farmers adaptive behavior and its impact on agricultural output,based on the micro-survey data of 312 tea farmers in 19 townships of 6 counties and cities in Fujian Province,the paper adopts a propensity score matching model to empirically analyze the impact of tea farmers adaptive behavior on income.The research shows that:①In the face of climate change and its impact,58.65%of tea farmers took the countermeasures,while 41.35%of tea farmers have not taken any measures.②After controlling the endogeneity of adaptive behavior,compared with the tea farmers who did not take adaptive measures,the tea income level of tea farmers who took adaptive measures increased by 29.01%.Based on the heterogeneity analysis of income dependence and business scale,it is found that tea farmers in total income dependence group and business scale group had higher ATT value than that of the overall sample.Therefore,the order of the effects of different groups adaptive behaviors on tea farmers income is as follows:total income dependence>large-scale>entire sample.