服务业“成本病”:理论演进与新一代信息技术背景下的再审视

"Baumol's Cost Disease":Theoretical Evolution and Re-examination under the New Generation of Information Technology

聚焦于服务业“成本病”假说,本文从提出、发展演进与争议视角系统梳理“成本病”假说的成因与观点分歧。同时,立足新一代信息技术背景,对“成本病”假说展开理论再阐释。以云计算、大数据、人工智能等数字技术为代表的新一代信息技术,从根本上改写了“服务”这一特殊商品的供给方式、“服务”价值的传递方式、“服务”提供流程、要素组织方式、“服务”内容与企业的价值增值模式,引发“要素-组织-产业形态”多维度的颠覆性变革,从而改写了传统服务业作为劳动生产率“停滞部门”的技术经济特征和“成本病”假说形成的内在逻辑。在此基础上,本文从新一代信息技术应用密集程度视角,采用我国服务部门宏微观层面数据重新审视“成本病”假说,重新认识服务业的技术经济特征。最后,在对信息技术与“成本病”假说相关研究进行系统回顾基础上,从三方面提出未来进一步研究的展望。

The"Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis reveals the intrinsic relationship between technological progress,industrial structure transformation,and economic growth,which has attracted widespread attention in academia since it was put forward in the 1960s.However,against the backdrop of the new generation of information technology,the service industry has shown new service content,new modes,and new business forms,presenting new technological and economic characteristics.Therefore,the"Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis needs to be re-examined under the new technological environment,and the subversive changes brought about by the new generation of information technology in the service industry need to be considered at the theoretical level,so that we can systematically analyze the impact of the new generation of information technology on the service industry.This is theoretical and practical significance to promote the high-quality development of China's service industry under the strategy of"Digital China".Firstly,this paper systematizes the research results related to the"Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis in China and abroad.According to different research perspectives,existing literature can be divided into three types:the existence theory of the"Baumol's cost disease",the negation theory,and the conditional existence theory.By comparing the key differences between the three types of literature in terms of core viewpoints and analytical logic,this paper explores the fo cuses and causes of the controversies arising from the three types of literature.On this basis,the premises,theoretical connotation,and underlying reasons of the"Baumol's cost disease"hypotheses are clarified,and in particular,the technological and economic characteristics of the traditional service industry behind the"Baumol's cost disease"are identified.Secondly,based on the new generation of information technology,the theoretical reinterpretation of the"Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis is carried out.Accompanied by the extensive and in-depth application of new-generation information technology such as cloud computing,big data,and artificial intelligence,the supply mode and content,value transfer mode,provision process,organization of elements,and value-added mode of service enterprises have been changed,leading to a multi-dimensional subversive change of"factor-organization-industrial form"in the service industry.Against the background of new generation information technology,the service industry has different technological and economic characteristics from the traditional service industry,and the lagging productivity growth of the traditional service industry is reversed,which brings a theoretical challenge to the"Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis.Based on this,this paper puts forward that it is necessary to re-examine the"Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis from the perspective of information technologyapplication intensity.Thirdly,using the micro-level and macro-level data of China,this paper verifies the impact of the application intensity of new-generation information technology on the productivity of the service industry and the"Baumol's cost disease".At the micro level,this paper uses the data of listed companies in the service industry to verify the effect of the application of new-generation information technology on the productivity enhancement of enterprises;at the macro level,this paper utilizes the provincial panel data to examine the impact of the intensity of the application of new-generation information technology on the productivity growth gap between the manufacturing industry and the service industry.Furthermore,this paper reclassifies the service industry from the perspective of the intensity of the application of new-generation information technology.Finally,based on a comprehensive review of research related to"Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis,this paper puts forward three outlooks for future research.Firstly,more scientific and accurate productivity accounting methods and systems in the service industry should be explored;secondly,the new technological and economic characteristics of the service industry under the new technological environment from the perspective of development should be explored to re-examine the theoretical viewpoints related to the""Baumol's cost disease"hypothesis;thirdly,it is necessary to pay close attention to the dynamic changes at the micro level,with a focus on the inconsistency between the macro performance and the micro changes,thus providing effective solutions to the problem of"Baumol's cost disease".