流动人口空间分布与公共服务可及性

Spatial Distribution of Internal Migrants and Public Service Accessibility

本文构建了一个空间一般均衡模型,提供了一个公共服务可及性影响流动人口留居预期的理论解释。以医疗等公共服务为例,利用2014-2017年匹配流入地和流出地的中国流动人口动态监测调查数据(CMDS)研究表明,与户籍挂钩的公共服务供给体系制约了公共服务可及性,显著降低外来流动人口的留居预期,流入地参加本地医保和养老保险占比增加10%,仅提高流动个体平均留居概率0.978%,但在考虑工资和居住成本后,人口流动仍具有净收益。工具变量法、控制流出地和流入地等稳健性分析证实了基本结论。异质性分析表明流入地公共服务可及性对中部和西部地区、流入本市2年到4年的30岁以下、城市户籍和具有5年以上长期留居意愿的流动个体影响更大。进一步,以流动个体是否有居住证、异地缴纳医保行为分别验证了公共服务提供制度差异对留居意愿的作用机制。本文为在畅通国内大循环和促进共同富裕背景下以基本公共服务均等化引导人口流动提供了政策启示,即提高常住地公共服务可及性和推进城乡公共服务制度统一。

With the deepening of urbanization in China,the large-scale population migration from rural areas to cities,and from small and medium-sized cities to large cities has become a critical factor affecting the transition of the Chinese economy toward more balanced and high-quality development.In 2020,the internal migrants in China were nearly 376 million,accounting for approximately 26.04%of the total population;and the rural migrants were nearly 170 million,accounting for 45.13%of the total internal migrants.Since 2010,China has entered a critical period after the Lewis turning point,the demographic transition characteristics such as aging and low fertility rate have increased the demand of internal migrants for local public services,such as medical treatment,leading to changes in driving forces for China's urbanization.The previous public service system based on Hukou no longer significantly affects the migration decision of internal migrants,while the accessibility of public services becomes increasingly important.This paper builds a spatial general equilibrium model to theoretically explain the micro-mechanism of the impact of public service accessibility on the internal migrant's staying expectations.In addition to employment,the access of internal migrants to local public services is also a crucial factor in forming stable staying expectations.The higher the accessibility of public services,the higher the migrants'staying expectations.Furthermore,this paper uses the data from the 2014-2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)provided by the National Health Commission of China to verify the theoretical hypothesis.To increase the validity of the conclusion,the CMDS data is matched with China's prefecture-level cities and above,and a paired set of the outflow and inflow location of the migrant is established.Based on the data matched with cities,the ratio of migrant individuals participating in local basic medical and pension insurance to the total sample size in the same city is set as a unified explanatory variable to measure the accessibility of public serviccs,while the willingness of migrants to stay is the dependent variable.Empirical research confirms the theoretical hypothesis,that is,the public service supply system linked to local Hukou restricts the accessibility of public services,thus significantly reducing the staying expectations of migrants.To test the robustness of the conclusions,the instrumental variables method,controlling outflow and inflow locations,and replacing variables all confirm the basic conclusion.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the accessibility of public services in the inflow locations has a greater impact on migrant individuals in the central and western regions,and those migrant samples under 30 years old who have been in the city for 2-4 years,or with urban Hukou,or those migrants with more than 5 years long-term willingness.Furthermore,the mechanism of the impact of the differences in local public service supply systems on public services accessibility is verified through the presence of residence permits and migrants'behavior of paying medical insurance in different places.The main innovations of this paper are as follows.Firstly,this paper incorporates wages and public services into a unified research framework,providing theoretical explanations and empirical evidence on how to better guide rational population mobility by coordinating the roles of government and the market.Secondly,based on a paired set of inflow and outflow locations of CMDS data,this paper quantifies the effect of urban public service on migrants'expectations by comparing the relative level in inflow and outflow areas,or the national average.Thirdly,this paper confirms that the mechanism of"existence"and"difference"of the public service system based on Hukou can be different by analyzing"having a residence permit or not"and"paying for medical insurance in different locations".This paper further deepens the understanding of"equal access to basic public services".The separation of the urban and rural public service systems significantly hinders rational labor migration and clears the surplus labor market.From the realistic significance of research,this paper provides policy implications for promoting the equalization of basic public services to guide migrants'mobility against the background of boosting the domestic economy and common prosperity,that is,expanding the accessibility of local public services to migrants and unifying of urban and rural public service systems.