江苏省2004—2022年传染病突发公共卫生事件趋势分析

Analysis of the trend of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2022

目的:分析江苏省传染病突发公共卫生事件的流行特征,为防控工作开展提供科学依据。方法:采用joinpoint回归模型分析时间维度变化趋势,采用时空重排扫描探测时空聚集性。结果:2004—2022年累计报告传染病突发事件3641起,累计报告发病131880例,死亡73例,涉及25种法定传染病突发事件1868起,其中甲类76起、乙类391起、丙类1401起;涉及8种其他传染病突发事件1773起。Joinpoint回归分析显示全省事件数呈增加趋势[平均年度变化百分比(average APC,AAPC=16.28,P<0.05)],甲类自2006年呈下降趋势(AAPC=-18.23,P<0.05),乙类、丙类、其他均呈增加趋势(AAPC>0,P<0.05),苏南、苏中、苏北各区域事件数全局均呈增加趋势(AAPC>0,P<0.05),苏南分为“快速增加—慢速增加—快速增加—减少”4个阶段,苏中事件数单调增加,苏北分为“增加—慢速减少—快速增加—减少”4个阶段。2006年、2015年、2018年为主要转折点。时空重排扫描共探测出8个时空聚集区,按发生顺序分别分布在苏中+苏南—苏北—苏南—苏南+苏北。结论:江苏省传染病突发事件总体呈现增加趋势,苏南和苏北聚集,苏中相对分散,重点地区需做好水痘、流行性感冒、手足口病等重点传染病的疫情监测和防控。

Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of public health emergencies of infectious disease in Jiangsu Province,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control efforts.Methods:Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends,and space-time permutation scan was employed for spatiotemporal cluster detection and exploration.Results:From 2004 to 2022,a total of 3641 emergencies were reported,with 131880 cases and 73 deaths.There were 1868 emergencies involving 25 notifiable infectious diseases,including 76 Class A,391 Class B,and 1401 Class C diseases.Additionally,1773 emergencies of 8 other non-notifiable infectious diseases were involved.Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the number of emergencies in Jiangsu Province showed an increasing trend[average APC(AAPC=16.28,P<0.05)].Class A showed a declining trend since 2006(AAPC=-18.23,P<0.05),while Class B,Class C,and others exhibited increasing trends(AAPC>0,P<0.05).Emergencies in Southern of Jiangsu,Middle of jiangsu,and Northern of Jiangsu all showed increasing trend(AAPC>0,P<0.05).In Southern of Jiangsu,the trend was characterized by 4 stages:rapid increase,slow increase,rapid increase,and decrease.In Middle of Jiangsu,rapid increase,and decrease.2006,2015,and 2018 were major turning points.8 space-time clusters were detected,sequentially distributed in midde of Jiangsu+Southern of Jiangsu,Northern of Jiangsu,Southern of Jiangsu,and Southern of Jiangsu+Northern of Jiangsu.Conclusion:In Jiangsu Province,infectious disease emergencies showed increasing trends,with clusters in southern and northern regions and relatively scattered in middle region.Priority areas need to focus on monitoring and controlling key diseases such as chickenpox,influenza,and hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD).