河南省城市韧性与低碳发展耦合协调及影响因子研究

Research on the Coupling Coordination and Impact Factors of Urban Resilience and Low⁃Carbon Development in Henan Province

为了给河南省建设低碳韧性城市、提升城市抵御风险能力、实现城市高质量发展提供科学依据,分别构建城市韧性、低碳发展评价指标体系,以2011—2021年为研究时段、以河南省18个地级市为样本市,采用熵值法计算城市韧性指数和低碳发展指数,采用耦合协调度模型、地理探测器对城市韧性与低碳发展耦合协调状况时空演变格局及影响因子进行了探讨。结果表明:河南省城市韧性和低碳发展水平均呈波动上升态势,研究时段末城市韧性指数和低碳发展指数分别为0.320、0.403,均有较大提升空间;河南省城市韧性与低碳发展耦合协调度呈波动上升态势,研究时段末耦合协调度为0.508,整体上属勉强协调;河南省城市韧性与低碳发展耦合协调度存在显著的空间异质性,呈现“以郑州为中心,中心高、四周低”的空间分异特征;研究时段末河南省大部分地级市城市韧性提升滞后于低碳发展,二者同步发展型城市较少;河南省城市韧性与低碳发展耦合协调状况受经济发展、公共服务、产业结构、科技创新等多类因子影响,其中经济发展和科技创新类因子是主要影响因子,各因子的交互作用表现出双因子增强。

In order to provide a scientific basis for Henan Province to build a low-carbon and resilient city,enhance city risk-resistance ca-pacity and achieve high-quality urban development,the evaluation index systems of urban resilience and low-carbon development were built respectively.Taking 2011-2021 as the research period and 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan Province as sample cities,the entropy method was used to calculate the urban resilience index and low-carbon development index and adopted the coupling coordination degree model and geographical detector to explore the spatial and temporal evolution pattern and driving factors of the coupling coordination of urban resilience and low-carbon development.The results show that the both urban resilience and low-carbon development level of Henan Province show a fluctuating upward trend.At the end of the research period,the urban resilience index and low-carbon development index are 0.320 and 0.403 respectively,which means that there is great room for improvement.The coupling coordination degree of urban resilience and low-car-bon development of Henan Province shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the coupling coordination degree at the end of the study period is 0.508,which is barely coordinated on the whole.There is a significant spatial heterogeneity in the coupling coordination degree of urban resil-ience and low-carbon development of Henan Province,showing a spatial differentiation characteristic of“Zhengzhou as the center,with high in the center,and low in the surrounding”.At the end of the research period,the urban resilience improvement in most prefecture-level cities in Henan Province lags behind low-carbon development,and there are only few synchronous development cities.The coupling and coordina-tion of urban resilience and low-carbon development in Henan Province is affected by multiple factors such as economic development,public service,industrial structure,and technological innovation,in which economic development and technological innovation are the main influen-cing factors,and the interaction among all of the factors is manifested as two-factor enhancement.