数字经济与制造业耦合式发展研究

Research on Coupled Development of Digital Economy and Manufacturing Industry

基于2015—2021年中国省级面板数据,构建数字经济与制造业高质量发展指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型对二者的耦合协调水平和时空差异进行考察。结果显示:中国数字经济与制造业高质量发展的耦合协调度不断提高,由轻微失调向接近失调转变,但整体水平仍然偏低;耦合协调度在时空上存在明显差异。从时间上看,大部分省份仍处于接近失调的较低水平,2021年中国仅有20%的省份达到勉强协调以上水平。从空间上看,东部最高,中部次之,西部最低,广东、江苏、浙江的发展成效尤为突出;耦合协调度存在显著的空间正相关性和空间集聚效应,高和低耦合协调度省份都存在集聚效应。耦合协调度的局部空间特征表现出东部地区主要集中在“高—高”集聚区,而西部地区主要位于“低—低”集聚区。基于此,提出结合地区自身发展需求和耦合协调度特征,发挥高耦合协调度区域的空间辐射作用,制定可持续发展战略等政策建议。

Based on China's provincial panel data covering the years 2015 to 2021,this study constructs the index systems for the digital economy and high-quality development of manufacturing.The coupling coordination degree model is applied to investigate the level of coupling coordination and spatiotemporal differences between the two sectors.The results show that the coupling coordination degree of China's digital economy and high-quality development of manufacturing has been continuously improving,transitioning from slight imbalance to near imbalance,but the overall level remains relatively low.There are significant spatiotemporal differences in the coupling coordination.Temporally,most provinces are still at a relatively low level approaching imbalance,with only 20%of provinces achieving barely coordinated or higher levels by 2021.Spatially,the eastern regions perform the best,followed by the central regions,and the western regions perform the lowest.Guangdong,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang provinces show particularly outstanding development achievements.There are significant spatial positive correlations and clustering effects in coupling coordination,with both high and low coupling coordination provinces exhibiting clustering effects.The local spatial characteristics of coupling coordination show that the eastern regions mainly concentrate in"high-high"clustering areas,while the western regions mainly reside in"low-low"clustering areas.Based on these findings,suggestions are put forward to combine the region's own development needs and the characteristics of coupling coordination degree,give full play to the spatial radiation effect of regions with a high degree of coupling coordination,and formulate policies such as sustainable development strategies.