福建省制造业与物流业联动发展水平实证研究

Empirical Study on the Coordinated Development Level of Manufacturing and Logistics Industries in Fujian Province

基于2012—2021年福建省制造业和物流业的数据,利用熵权法计算两个行业发展的综合得分,使用耦合协调度模型测度两业的耦合协调状况,并采用GM(1,N)模型计算两个行业的联动趋势,最后通过灰色关联分析测算两个行业的耦合协调度中各个因素的发展关联度。结果表明:两个行业处于良好的耦合状态且不断逼近完全耦合,耦合协调度从2012年的轻微失调发展到2021年的良好协调,并且处于持续上升态势;制造业具有较高的自我发展能力并能有效促进物流业的发展;在两业灰色关联分析中影响最大的因素是居民人均消费性支出,其次是制造业固定资产投资额。

Based on data from the manufacturing and logistics industries in Fujian Province from 2012 to 2021,this study uses entropy weight method to calculate the comprehensive scores of the development of these two industries.The coupling coordination degree model is employed to measure the coupling coordination status between the two industries.Additionally,the GM(1,N)model is used to calculate the linkage trend between the two industries.Finally,Grey Relational Analysis is applied to assess the developmental correlations of various factors in the coupling coordination of these two industries.The results show that the two industries are in a good coupling state and are continuously approaching complete coupling.The coupling coordination degree has developed from slight imbalance in 2012 to good coordination in 2021,showing a continuous upward trend.The manufacturing industry has a high self-development capability and effectively promotes the development of the logistics industry.Among the factors analyzed in the Grey Relational Analysis of the two industries,the factor with the greatest impact is per capita consumer expenditure of residents,followed by fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry.