碳交易驱动下的公共建筑节能改造技术选型决策研究

Research on Technology Selection Decision of Energy-Saving Renovation of Public Buildings Driven by Carbon Trading

针对公共建筑节能改造方案决策,从节能与碳交易综合收益出发,建立围护结构(墙体、窗体)改造、照明改造、空调优化、屋顶光伏、锅炉电能替代六项技术的节能减碳与经济效益模型,借助多元回归算法构建电价、碳交易价格波动下的改造方案决策方法,突破传统的经验赋权评价模式,推演最佳初投资金额和各项技术选型决权重与优先级,最后结合工程案例验证了方法的有效性,旨在为业主灵活应对能源与碳交易市场、精准节能提供参考。

Aiming at the decision of energy-saving renovation scheme of public buildings,based on the comprehensive income of energy-saving and carbon trading,this paper established the energy-saving,carbon reduction and economic benefit models of six technologies,such as:enclosure structure(wall and form)renovation,lighting renovation,air conditioning optimization,roof PV and boiler power replacement.The decision-making method of transformation scheme under the fluctuation of electricity price and carbon trading price is constructed with the help of multiple regression algorithm.Breaking through the traditional experience empowerment evaluation model,the optimal initial investment amount and the weighting and priority of various technology selection decisions are deduced.Finally,the effectiveness of the method is verified by combining engineering cases,aiming to provide reference for owners to flexibly respond to the energy and carbon trading market and precise energy saving.