基于MaxEnt模型预测贵州香禾糯的潜在适生区分布

Predicting Potential Distribution of Suitable Regions for Guizhou Kam Sweet Rice Using the MaxEnt Model

基于实地记录和文献资料的贵州香禾糯实际分布数据,采用Kuenm包优化的最大熵模型(MaxEnt),研究历史和未来气候情景下贵州香禾糯适生区以及影响香禾糯分布的主导气候因子,为气候变化背景下合理规划香禾糯生产布局提供参考依据。结果表明:(1)1970−2000年历史时期,香禾糯潜适生区主要集中在贵州省黔东南州的东南部,高适生区分布在从江、榕江、黎平三县。(2)相比于历史时期,SSP126气候情景下香禾糯高适生区在2041−2060年面积增加并向高海拔处推移,2081−2100年面积减小并向高纬度推移。SSP245气候情景下香禾糯高适生区在2041−2060年面积增加并向高纬度推移,2081−2100年面积减小并向高海拔处推移。SSP585气候情景下香禾糯高适生区在2041−2060年面积增加并向高海拔处推移,2081−2100年面积减小并向高海拔处推移。(3)在19个气候影响因子中,最冷月份最低温度、平均昼夜温差是影响香禾糯分布的主要气候因子,其影响分布的贡献率分别为34.8%和13.8%。总体而言,气候变化将导致香禾糯高适生区面积在2041−2060年扩大,在2081−2100年缩小,因此需重视气候变化,合理规划香禾糯生产布局,保障粮食安全性。

Based on the actual distribution data of Guizhou kam sweet rice in field records and literature,the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt)optimised by the Kuenm packet was used to study the suitable regions of Guizhou kam sweet rice and the dominant climatic factors affecting the distribution of kam sweet rice under the historical and future climate scenarios,which provides a reference basis for rational planning of distribution of kam sweet rice production in the context of climate change.The results showed that:(1)during the historical period of 1970-2000,the potential suitable region of kam sweet rice were mainly concentrated in the southeastern part of Qiandongnan prefecture,Guizhou province,and the highly suitable regions were distributed in Congjiang,Rongjiang,and Liping counties.(2)Compared with the historical period,the highly suitable region of kam sweet rice under the SSP126 climate scenario increases in region and moves to higher altitude in 2041−2060,and decreases in region and moves to higher latitude in 2081−2100,and increases in region and moves to higher latitude in 2041−2060,and decreases in region and moves to higher latitude in 2081−2100 under the SSP245 climate scenario.In the SSP585 climate scenario,the highly suitable region of kam sweet rice increases in region and moves to higher altitudes in 2081−2100.(3)Among the 19 climate impact factors,the min.temperature of the coldest month and the mean diurnal range difference are the main climate factors affecting the distribution of kam sweet rice,with contribution rates of 34.8%and 13.8%,respectively.Generally speaking,climate change will lead to the expansion of the highly suitable region of kam sweet rice in 2041−2060 and the reduction of the region in 2081−2100,so it is necessary to pay attention to the climate change,and rationally plan the production layout of kam sweet rice to ensure the food security.