基于模拟低温的福建喜温类蔬菜大棚寒冻害危险性区划

Risk Zoning of Thermophilic Vegetables Cold and Freezing Injury in Greenhouse Based on Low Temperature Simulation

利用2020-2023年12月-翌年2月的福建省福清市、清流县代表性塑料大棚棚内气象监测数据以及同期陆面同化最低气温数据,构建晴天、多云、阴天和雨天不同天气类型下棚内最低气温回归模型,基于1991-2020年福建66个县市气象台站数据,模拟历年12月-翌年2月温室大棚内日最低气温,通过构建温室大棚喜温类蔬菜寒冻害等级指标体系,采用主客观综合权重法确定指标权重,建立寒冻害危险性评估模型,开展福建省温室大棚喜温类蔬菜寒冻害风险区划。结果表明:(1)构建的晴天、多云、阴天和雨天不同天气类型下大棚内冬季最低气温回归模型,R^(2)均>0.75,模型检验绝对误差分别为0.6℃、1.4℃、1.0℃和0.5℃;(2)福建温室大棚喜温类蔬菜寒冻害危险性低风险区主要分布在福州以南沿海县市200m以下低海拔区域;中风险区主要集中在北部沿海和南部内陆海拔200-500m地区;次高风险区主要集中在南部内陆海拔500-1000m的中高海拔山区和北部海拔200-500m地区;高风险区主要在武夷山脉、鹫峰山区、戴云山脉、博平岭和玳瑁山一带海拔1000m以上地区,造成的灾害损失大,不适宜温室大棚喜温类蔬菜种植。

In order to investigate the risk of low temperature freezing damage in winter for thermophilic vegetables in greenhouse in Fujian province,this study utilized the meteorological monitoring data from representative plastic greenhouses in Fuqing and Qingliu from December 2020 to February 2023,as well as assimilated land surface minimum temperature data during the same period.Regression models were developed for the minimum temperature inside the greenhouse under different weather conditions,such as sunny,cloudy,overcast and rainy.Based on data from the 66 meteorological stations in Fujian province from 1991 to 2020,daily minimum temperature inside greenhouse were inferred from December to February in previous years.Based on the low-temperature data inside the greenhouses,authors constructed a risk classification index system for freezing damage of thermophilic vegetables in greenhouses in Fujian.The weights of the indicators were determined by using the subjective-objective comprehensive weight method,and a risk assessment model for freezing damage was established to carry out the risk zoning of freezing damage in greenhouse for thermophilic vegetables in Fujian province.The results showed that:(1)the regression models for the minimum temperature in the greenhouse during winter under different weather conditions,including sunny,cloudy,overcast,and rainy,had R^(2)greater than 0.75,and the absolute errors of the model validation were 0.6℃,1.4℃,1.0℃,and 0.5℃,respectively.(2)The low-risk area for cold and freezing damage of thermophilic vegetables in greenhouse mainly distributed in the coastal counties and cities south of Fuzhou with elevations below 200m.The medium-risk area mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of the north and the inland areas of the south with elevations between 200m and 500m.The moderate-risk area was mainly distributed in the middle and high altitude mountainous areas with elevations between 500m and 1000m in the southern inland and the coastal areas with elevations between 200m and 500m in the north,basically surrounding the areas with severe freezing damage and extending to lower elevations.The high-risk area mainly distributed in the areas above 1000m in Wuyi mountains,Jiufeng mountains,Daiyun mountains,Boping ridge,and Daimao mountain,where significant losses occurred and were not suitable for greenhouse thermophilic vegetable cultivation.