拜登政府“一体化威慑”战略评析

The Analysis on the Biden Administration's “Integrated Deterrence” Strategy

拜登政府的“一体化威慑”战略将“惩罚性威慑”和“拒止性威慑”统合,更注重“拒止性威慑”;将核威慑与常规威慑统合,更注重核威慑、新兴技术赋能的战略威慑,以及“混合战争”与“灰色地带”较量中的常规威慑;将军事部门的威慑和其他部门的威慑统合,更注重集体安全机制的威慑作用。拜登政府之所以提出该战略,一是为了适应国家安全环境改变的需要,重点加大对中俄两国的遏制力度,防范并争取在潜在的大国战争中获胜;二是进一步整合利用盟伴体系,阻止盟伴的离心倾向;三是提升美军战力,维护美国在全球的军事优势。当前该战略处于边执行边完善的过程中,拜登政府正着力强化军备建设,推进前沿威慑;加大盟伴军事体系建设,强化在欧亚大陆的联合军事威慑;提高内政外交一体化程度,加快内部发展并提升对外制裁围堵力度。但是,由于存在不顾国力局限而发动攻势、四面出击以及对安全的管理协调能力要求非常高等问题,该战略的推行受到严重束缚。

The Biden administration's“integrated deterrence”strategy combines“punitive deterrence”and“deterrent deterrence”,and pays more attention to the latter;it also integrates nuclear and conventional deterrence,focusing on nuclear deterrence,strategic deterrence enabled by emerging technologies,and conventional deterrence in hybrid warfare and“Gray Zone”competition.Furthermore,it integrates deterrence of military and other departments,highlighting the deterrent effect of collective security mechanisms.The fundamental motivation behind this strategy is to adapt to changes in the national security environment,with a particular emphasis on increasing containment efforts against China and Russia,preventing and winning potential great power wars,preventing allies and partners from drifting apart,further integrating and utilizing alliances and partnerships,and enhancing U.S.military capabilities to maintain global military superiority.The“Integrated Deterrence”strategy is being proposed,implemented,and refined.The Biden administration is focusing on strengthening military construction efforts,advancing forward-looking deterrent deployments,expanding alliance military system relationships,strengthening joint military deterrence in Eurasia,increasing integration between domestic politics and foreign diplomacy,and enhancing internal development while imposing sanctions and containment measures externally.However,due to problems such as launching offensive actions regardless of national limitations,creating too many enemies through multi-front attacks,and the high requirement of safety management and coordination ability,the implementation of this strategy has been severely constrained.