缅甸民主转型期间的大国平衡外交政策:动因、特征与影响(2011-2020)

Myanmar's Great-Power Balanced Foreign Policy During theDemocratic Transition:Motivations,Characteristics and Influence(2011-2020)

2011年以来,缅甸启动了政治民主化的转型进程,历经联邦巩固与发展党政府和全国民主联盟政府两个时期。期间,缅甸的外交政策经历了重大转变,从新军人政府时期的“亲密友华”逐渐转向“大国平衡”。外交政策的转变意味着缅甸有意平衡各大国在缅影响,与所有大国保持友好关系,并强调地区合作与和平共处。缅甸外交转变也是对西方取消制裁后新国际环境的回应。本研究旨在深入探讨缅甸民主化转型期间实施的大国平衡外交政策,揭示缅甸政府采取这一政策的动机、特征与影响。实质上,缅甸大国平衡外交是向传统中立政策的回归,在民主化转型时期缅甸并未成为美国、印度、日本等大国的盟友,对华友好仍然是缅甸外交政策的主基调。大国平衡政策不仅是缅甸政府为捍卫国家利益做出的战略选择,同时也是对国际形势变迁的因应。

Since 2011,Myanmar has embarked on a process of political democratization,undergoing two periods:the Union Solidarity and Development Party government and the National League for Democracy government.During this time,Myanmar's foreign policy has undergone significant changes,shifting gradually from the“Pro-China”stance of the previous new military regime to a policy of“great-power balance”.This shift in foreign policy signifies Myanmar's intention to balance the influence of major powers within its borders,maintain friendly relations with all major countries,and emphasize regional cooperation and peaceful coexistence.Myanmar's diplomatic shift also responds to the new international environment following the lifting of Western sanctions.The purpose of this study is to probe into the foreign policy of great power balance implemented by Myanmar during the period of democratic transition,revealing the motivations,characteristics,and influence of this policy.In essence,Myanmar's great power balanced diplomacy is a return to the traditional policy of neutrality.Despite its democratization,Myanmar has not aligned itself with major powers such as the U.S.,India,or Japan;maintaining friendly relations with China remains a cornerstone of Myanmar's foreign policy.The“great-power balance”policy is not only a strategic choice made by the Myanmar government to defend national interests but also a response to the changes in the international landscape.