中国家庭结构变迁的特征趋势与问题研究--基于全国人口普查微观数据的分析

A Study on the Characteristics,Trend,and Problems of Family Structural Changes in China:Based on the Analysis of the National Census Micro-data

家庭是社会的基本组成单位,家庭结构变动直接作用于家庭关系与家庭功能并进而影响人口、经济、社会和文化发展全局。使用连续五次全国人口普查微观数据,运用家庭户类型识别方法和队列分析与时期分析等人口分析技术,系统考察了我国家庭结构变迁的特征、趋势及相关问题。研究发现,尽管1982—2020年夫妻核心家庭占比持续上升,但1990—2020年标准核心家庭持续降低并带动了核心家庭整体连续下降;三代直系家庭在1982—2010年持续上升但2010—2020年开始下降;1990—2020年单人户连续上升。五次普查时点户成员所处家庭结构的年龄模式既存在较高的相似性也表现出显著的水平差异。人口转变明显改变了个体生命历程与家庭生命周期,家庭结构随之发生显著变化。研究建议坚持以家庭为中心的社会政策导向,增强家庭建设的支持力度,通过推动家庭高质量发展来助力人口高质量发展支撑的人口规模巨大的中国式现代化。

Family is the basic component unit of the society,and the change of the family structure directly acts on the family relationship and family function,and then affects the overall development of population,economy,society and culture.Using the micro data of five consecutive national population censuses,and using such population analysis techniques as cohort analysis and period analysis,this paper systematically investigates the characteristics,trend and related problems of family structural changes in China.The study finds out that although the proportion of marital nuclear families continued to increase from 1982 to 2020,the number of standard nuclear families continued to decrease from 1990 to 2020,which led to the overall continuous decline of the number of nuclear families.The number of three-generation linear families continued to rise from 1982 to 2010,but began to decline from 2010 to 2020.The number of single-member households successively increased from 1990 to 2020.The age mode of the family structure of the time-point household members from the five national censuses show comparatively high similarity and also significant level differences.Population transformation has greatly changed the individual life course and the family life cycle,and accordingly,the family structure has changed significantly.This research suggests that we should adhere to the family-centered social policy orientation,strengthen the support to family construction,and promote the high-quality family development to help realize Chinese-style modernization with large-scale population,which is supported by the high-quality population development.