元代海运变迁新论——以“事故粮”之统计分析为中心

Grain Loss as a Key Factor in the Evolution of Maritime Transportation of Yuan Dynasty

在元代海运的三组历史数据中,“事故粮”值得深入考察。通过初步的统计分析可知,元代海运前期事故粮数量的变化趋势,与技术变革之间存在明显关联。数额巨大且起伏不定的事故粮刺激了技术进步,技术进步反过来大幅降低了海运损耗。事故粮还一定程度上牵动了海运组织和人事的变迁;元代海运损耗率的持续降低也得益于海运体系的不断变革和优化。以事故粮为中心,可对元代海运史上技术、组织和人事的动态演化过程进行重新解读和勾勒。

In all three series of historical record left by the maritime transportation in the Yuan period,'grain loss"deserves reassessment.According to a preliminary statistical analysis,grain loss was greatly affected by technical changes in the earlier stage.The huge and fluctuating amount of grain loss had stimulated technological progress,which in turn reduced maritime loss.Changes and trend of maritime grain loss also affected maritime personnel and organization changes;on the other hand,the long-term reduction of loss rate benefited from the reform and optimization of maritime system as well.Taking grain loss as the key factor,we can reinterpret the dynamic evolution of maritime transportation in the Yuan period.