城市流通数字化转型与国内消费市场潜能:来自“国家电子商务示范城市”的准自然实验

Digital Transformation of Urban Circulation and Potential of Domestic Consumer Market:A Quasi-natural Experiment from the"National E-commerce Demonstration City"

数字经济时代,推动城市流通数字化转型对于提升流通效率、畅通国内大循环以及挖掘消费市场潜能具有重要的现实意义。本文基于2007-2020年283个地级市及以上城市面板数据,以“国家电子商务示范城市”政策作为准自然实验,构建多期双重差分模型对城市流通数字化转型赋能消费市场潜能的政策效果展开实证评估。研究发现,国家电子商务示范城市政策能够显著激发消费市场潜能,且该政策在东部地区、高行政级别、高人口密度以及数字化基础条件占优势的城市中表现得更为明显;机制检验表明,国家电子商务示范城市政策能够通过提升供需匹配效率、畅通商品和要素自由流动以及强化区域专业化分工间接激发消费市场潜能;此外,城市流通数字化转型具有正向空间溢出效应,能够带动邻近城市消费市场潜能的释放。研究结论为推进现代化流通体系建设、充分激发有潜能的消费等方面提供理论依据与经验支撑。

Under the background of the digital economy era,promoting the digital transformation of urban circulation is of great practical significance to improve circulation efficiency,smooth the domestic circulation and tap the potential of the consumer market.Based on the panel data of the 283 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2020,this paper takes the policy of"National E-commerce demonstration city"as a quasi-natural experiment,and constructs a multi-stage DID model to carry out an empirical evaluation of the policy effect of the digital transformation of urban circulation to empower the consumer market potential.It is found that the national e-commerce demonstration city policy can significantly stimulate the potential of the consumer market,and the policy is more obvious in the eastern region,high administrative level,high population density and digital basic conditions.The mechanism test shows that the national e-commerce demonstration city policy can indirectly stimulate the potential of the consumer market by improving the efficiency of supply and demand matching,unblocking the free flow of goods and factors and strengthening the regional specialized division of labor.In addition,the digital transformation of urban circulation has a positive spatial spillover effect,which can promote the release of the potential of the consumer market in neighboring cities.The research conclusions provide theoretical basis and empirical support for promoting the construction of modern circulation system,accelerating the digital transformation of circulation,and fully stimulating potential consumption.