劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率的影响

The impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency

【目的】本文旨在探讨在人口收缩背景下,劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率的影响机制。【方法】基于2003—2019年中国283个城市的面板数据,通过构建理论分析框架和面板固定效应模型,实证检验劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率的影响,以及产业结构调整对这一影响的调节效应。【结果】①劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率具有显著的负向影响,劳动力越收缩,城市土地利用效率越低。②劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率的影响存在地区和时间异质性。劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率的负向影响在东部和中部地区尤为明显;新型城镇化建设开展之后,劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率的负效应较新型城镇化建设开展之前显著减弱。③产业结构调整具有显著的正向调节作用,产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化均可抑制劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率带来的不利影响。【结论】劳动力收缩对城市土地利用效率具有显著的抑制作用,而产业结构调整有利于降低该不利影响。

[Objective]This study aimed to explore the mechanism of impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency in China under the background of population shrinkage.[Methods]Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019,we empirically tested the impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency and the moderating effect of industrial structure adjustment by constructing a theoretical analysis framework and a dynamic panel model.[Results](1)Labor force shrinkage has a significant negative impact on urban land use efficiency.The more the labor force shrinks,the lower the urban land use efficiency.As a key factor affecting the spatial development of cities,the loss of labor has not only slowed down the expansion of built-up land but has also led to the decline of some towns,which in turn affects the productivity of urban land.(2)Heterogeneity analysis shows that there is regional and temporal heterogeneity in the impact of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency.The negative effect of labor force shrinkage on urban land use efficiency mainly occurs in the eastern and central regions.Compared with the period before the construction of new urbanization,the negative effect of labor force contraction after the construction of new urbanization is significantly weaker.(3)Industrial structure adjustment has a significant negative moderating effect,and both advanced industrial structure and industrial structure rationalization can have a positive impact on the inhibiting effect of labor force contraction.[Conclusion]Labor force shrinkage has a significant inhibitory effect on urban land use efficiency.However,the restructuring of industries has helped to ameliorate this negative effect.Therefore,it is recommended that labor force shrinking areas actively adjust their industrial structure to cope with the negative impact of labor force shrinking on the sustainable use of urban land resources and high-quality development.