人口收缩对企业技术创新的影响

The impact of population shrinkage on enterprises’technological innovation

【目的】提高企业技术创新水平是发展新质生产力的关键。当前中国城市人口收缩现象愈加凸显,本文旨在从微观企业视角探讨人口收缩如何影响企业技术创新,并深入分析影响机制,提出企业技术创新空间优化和高质量发展的政策性建议。【方法】基于2009—2018年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,利用《中国城市建设统计年鉴》中的人口数据构造城市人口收缩指数,并与上市公司经营地所在城市进行匹配,采用固定效应模型和双重差分(DID)模型,实证检验城市人口收缩对企业技术创新的影响。结合理论分析,进一步探讨了该影响背后的机制。【结果】研究发现:①人口收缩对企业技术创新投入和产出均具有一定程度的负面影响;②人口收缩通过削弱人力资本、降低产业集聚水平以及造成金融投资的“挤出”效应,对企业技术创新产生负面影响;③人口收缩对企业技术创新的影响表现出行业异质性,尤其对技术密集型企业的技术创新行为产生较大的影响,而对劳动密集型和资本密集型企业的技术创新影响不显著。【结论】提升人力资本水平、提高产业集聚水平以及降低企业金融化水平是人口收缩情境下促进企业技术创新的重要策略,本文的研究发现可为人口收缩型城市政府激励企业技术创新、引领企业加快形成新质生产力提供经验证据和政策性启示。

[Objective]Improving the level of technological innovation in enterprises is the key to developing new quality productivity.The current phenomenon of population shrinkage in China’s cities is becoming more pronounced.This study aimed to explore from the perspective of enterprises how these spatial phenomena affect corporate technological innovation and to conduct an in-depth analysis of the mechanisms involved,thereby proposing policy recommendations for the spatial optimization of corporate technological innovation and the promotion of high-quality development.[Methods]Based on the data of China’s A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2009 to 2018,this study used the population data from the China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook to construct the urban population shrinkage index and matched it with the cities where the listed companies operate.The impact of urban population shrinkage on corporate technological innovation was empirically tested using fixed effects models and difference-indifferences(DID)models.This research also delved into the mechanisms behind these impacts through theoretical analysis.[Results]The study found that:(1)Population shrinkage had a certain negative effect on both the input and output of corporate technological innovation;(2)Population shrinkage negatively affected corporate technological innovation through mechanisms such as the weakening of human capital,reduction in industrial agglomeration,and the crowding-out effect of financial investment;(3)The impact of population shrinkage on corporate technological innovation exhibited heterogeneity across industries,particularly affecting the technological innovation behavior of technology-intensive enterprises,while having no significant impact on labor-intensive and capital-intensive enterprises.[Conclusion]To enhance the input and output of corporate technological innovation,further promotion of balanced spatial population development and regional innovation cooperation is required,which advances regional integration.