碳交易机制与技术应用对中国煤电行业碳减排的影响——基于强化学习的多智能体仿真

The impact of carbon trading mechanism and technologyapplication on carbon emission reduction in China’scoal-fired power industry:Multi-agent simulation based on reinforcement learning

【目的】“3060”双碳目标对中国煤电行业低碳发展提出了全新要求,随着碳配额上限的逐步下调,煤电行业如何进行低碳转型已引起业界与学术界的关注。碳交易机制通过政策约束引导煤电企业减少碳排放,技术创新通过提高能效和降低排放,在推动煤电企业向低碳模式转变中发挥关键作用。然而,这一转型过程在微观层面的内在驱动机理尚未得到充分解析。【方法】以中国2022年2628家煤电企业为样本,结合强化学习理论和多智能体模型,基于Netlogo平台对碳交易机制下碳市场、政府和不同减碳倾向(倾向于优先选用技术减碳与否)煤电企业之间的交互影响与协同机制进行模拟与分析。【结果】研究表明:①碳交易机制的实施可有效推动煤电企业进行技术减碳,实现环境和经济的绩效双赢,预计影响效果于2032年起愈发显著。②煤电企业减碳倾向受碳交易推行程度影响。2030年碳达峰目标实现之前,煤电企业未如预期般积极应用技术进行减碳工作。③合理的碳交易价格将有效引导企业进行技术应用投资,碳价越高越能刺激煤电企业的减碳积极性和碳市场的活跃度。碳价在各个阶段涨幅不同,自2022年碳市场初始运行起至2030年,碳价涨幅最大,在2032至2060年的中后期阶段平稳上升。【结论】中国煤电行业实现低碳转型仍面临挑战,需加快完善碳交易市场机制建设,强化碳资产管理,健全减碳激励支持体系和优化碳配额定价机制,推动中国煤电行业技术减碳和高质量发展。

[Objective]The“3060”dual carbon target introduces new requirements for the lowcarbon development of China’s coal-fired power industry.With decreasing carbon quota limits,the focus on low-carbon transformation in this industry has increased among industry and academia.The carbon trading mechanism directs coal-fired power enterprises to reduce emissions and innovate through policy constraints.By enhancing energy efficiency and reducing emissions,it is vital in driving coal-fired power enterprises toward a low-carbon model.However,the micro-level driving mechanism of this transformation process remains underexplored[Methods]This study uses a sample of 2628 coal-fired power enterprises in China from 2022,employing reinforcement learning theory and multi-agent models.Through the Netlogo platform,it simulates and analyzes the interactive and collaborative effects between the carbon market,government,and coal-fired power enterprises with varying carbon reduction tendencies under the carbon trading mechanism.[Results]The research reveals that:(1)The carbon trading mechanism effectively promotes technological carbon reduction in coal-fired power enterprises,achieving both environmental and economic benefits,with significant impacts expected from 2032 onwards.(2)The carbon reduction tendency of these enterprises is influenced by the degree of carbon trading implementation.Before reaching the carbon peak target by 2030,these enterprises did not actively employ carbon reduction technologies as anticipated.(3)A reasonable carbon trading price effectively encourages investment in technology application.Higher carbon prices stimulate greater carbon reduction efforts and increase market activity.The carbon price growth is most significant from 2022 to 2030 and continues to rise steadily from 2032 to 2060.[Conclusion]China’s coal-fired power industry faces challenges in achieving low-carbon transformation.Accelerating the construction of carbon trading market mechanisms,strengthening carbon asset management,improving carbon reduction incentives,and optimizing carbon quota pricing mechanisms are essential for promoting technological emission reduction and the high-quality development of China’s coal-fired power industry.