增量土地扩张和存量土地再开发对城市经济增长的影响

The effect of incremental land expansion and stock land redevelopment on urban economic growth

【目的】在增量土地资源趋紧的现实背景下,城市发展逐步由依赖增量土地供应的外延型扩张转向注重存量土地再开发的内涵型集约模式,本文试图探究增量土地扩张和存量土地再开发在不同城市发展阶段对经济增长的影响,以期为城市土地供应政策的完善提供有益参考。【方法】基于2009—2021年中国284个地级市面板数据,构建双固定效应和门槛效应面板模型,探究增量土地扩张和存量土地再开发对城市经济增长的影响,并进行不同城市发展阶段的门槛效应分析和细分城市规模的异质性分析。【结果】①存量土地再开发对经济增长的边际贡献高于增量土地扩张,且影响显著。②在城市发展的过程中,增量土地扩张和存量土地再开发对经济增长的影响均存在人口城镇化和人均GDP门槛效应。随着人口城镇化、人均GDP水平的不断提升,增量土地扩张对城市经济增长的边际贡献不断下降,存量土地再开发对经济增长的边际贡献不断上升,并逐渐超过了增量土地扩张。③在异质性分析方面,上述两个门槛效应在大城市和中小城市均存在,并与全国样本存在相同的发展态势。其中,大城市的门槛值高于全国门槛值,全国门槛值又高于中小城市。【结论】传统依靠增量土地扩张的外延扩张型城市发展模式难以为继,城市逐步进入存量时代;但不同规模城市进入存量发展阶段的时期存在差异,应对不同城市采取差异化土地供应策略,以期更好地发挥土地资源对城市经济的驱动作用。

[Objective]Against the backdrop of tightening incremental land resources,urban development is gradually shifting from relying on the external expansion of incremental land supply to focusing on the intensive model of redevelopment of stock land.This article attempts to explore the impact of incremental land expansion and redevelopment of stock land on urban economic growth at different stages of urban development,in order to provide useful references for the improvement of urban land supply policies.[Methods]Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture level cities from 2009 to 2021 in China,dual fixed effects and threshold effects model were constructed to explore the impact of incremental land expansion and stock land redevelopment on urban economic growth,threshold effects were analyzed at different stages of urban development and scale heterogeneity was analyzed.[Results](1)The marginal contribution of redevelopment of stock land to economic growth is higher than that of incremental land expansion,and the impact is significant.(2)In the process of urban development,the expansion of incremental land and the redevelopment of existing land both have a population urbanization and per capita GDP threshold effect on urban economic growth.With the continuous improvement of population urbanization and per capita GDP level,the marginal contribution of incremental land expansion to urban economic growth continues to decline,while the marginal contribution of stock land redevelopment to economic growth continues to rise and gradually exceeds that of incremental land expansion.In terms of heterogeneity analysis,the above two threshold effects exist in cities of different scales,and have the same development trend as the national sample.Among them,the threshold value for large cities is higher than the national threshold value,and the national threshold value is higher than the threshold value for small and medium-sized cities.[Conclusion]The traditional externally expanding urban development model relying on incremental land expansion is unsustainable,and cities are gradually entering the era of stock;However,cities of different scales enter the stage of stock development at different times.It is necessary to adopt differentiated land supply strategies for different cities in order to better leverage the driving role of land resources on urban economy.